No need to freak out about Jordan Staal

A lot of buzz around the interwebs for Jordan Staal's status, especially on the heels of his big bro's big contract extension. Daddy of the Puck, Empty Netters and USA Today all touch on it and pretty much come to the same conclusion: that the Penguins and Staal would be better off with #11 in a role of scoring winger and not a 3rd line center.

We've long advocated the need for Staal in the more defensive 3rd line center role but may be coming around. Look at the top 6 forwards, you've got the best two offensive centers in the game in Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. Done and done without thinking twice. Then you've got Geno's slick winger in Petr Sykora and now basically Sid's version of Sykora in Miroslav Satan. Ruslan Fedotenko was brought in to use his size and be a fringe top 6 forward but he statistically is pretty reliable for about 15-20 goals and no more. Then who's the sixth? A rotating cast of characters like Maxime Talbot or Pascal Dupuis? They're out of place and don't have the production of a former 29 goal scorer like Staal. The Pens can hope, but not count on, an unexpected star emerging like Janne Pesonen or maybe even youngest Luca Caputi but, as the old saying goes; hope in one hand crap in the other and see what fills up first.

What are the contract implications? After this season the Penguins are set to have eight notable unrestricted free agents (including Sykora, Satan and Fedotenko) and will clear approximately an estimated $16 million off the books. Right now there's no reason for Staal to seek an extension, his 12 goal sophomore slump season takes a lot of leverage away....But this year if he plays on Malkin/Crosby's wing again, he probably will score about 30 goals like in his rookie season. And given how teams over-pay young players for long-term contracts (Keith Ballard at $4+ million for the next six years!!!) it should be no surprise that Jordan will attract significant interest from opposing GMs. Could the Pens match a $5 million offer (just under the threshold of heavy draft-pick compensation)? That's a question we're unprepared to answer--or even think about-- in September. By next June and July Mr. Shero will have to.

For now though, here's two possibilities of lineups...We'll leave the guesses of which is more formidable to you.

Staal-Crosby-Satan
Fedotenko-Malkin-Sykora
Dupuis-Talbot-Kennedy
Cooke-Taffe-Godard

Dupuis(Talbot)*-Crosby-Satan
Fedotenko-Malkin-Sykora
Dupuis(Talbot)-Staal-Kennedy
Cooke-Taffe-Godard

*Envisioning a rotation of players to jump up to the top line and try to catch lightning in a bottle.

Pens looking for one more forward?

Pittsburgh's Eklund, err we mean The Insider on Pittsburgh Sports recently had this to say:

According to a source, the Penguins are still looking for a forward that may compete for a top six position. There have been brief discussions with Brendan Shanahan but no contract offer has been made. Sources indicate there appears to be more interest from Shanahan's camp then the Penguins but the Penguins are looking into the possibility. The Penguins have targeted a few forwards for training camp invites. Geoff Sanderson could be one of those forwards. The Penguins are looking for additional speed and have talked to his agent. No offer has been made, just to check on his health and asking price. Previously I reported, Shero had brief discussions with the agent for Mark Parrish. Parrish is seeking a multi-year deal and the Penguins are not expected to pursue Parrish any further.

No doubt the guy has sources but we're not sure we bite. According to the main-stream conventional knowledge, the New York Rangers remain Shanahan's preference and Sanderson is a 36 year old player that looked out of gas with Edmonton last season.

The Penguins have four clear top 6 skill forwards nailed down (Crosby, Malkin, Satan, Sykora). Given the contract signed ($2.25 million), it's presumptive that Ruslan Fedotenko was brought in to play bigger than a 3rd line role. This leaves one wing open and a guy like Shanahan would fill some talent gap. But the Penguins could also use a committee of players that have had some success in big moments (Maxime Talbot, Pascal Dupuis) or give Finnish player Janne Pesonen a chance at the big time.

The Penguins have roughly $1.5 million in cap space, probably not enough for Shanahan anyways. Better to keep what's left of the small cushion they have then get a vet like Sanderson or Glen Murray who's best days are clearly behind. There's nothing wrong with checking in with players like Parrish or Shanahan to see what they're looking for---hell that's Ray Shero's job...But contact between multiple parties may not mean a move is as pressing as TIOPS may lead (or have been led) to believe.

We suspect perhaps some others are as bored in this mid-summer rut.

53 more days 'til Sweden.

Pens taking Fleury to arbitration

Well, Marc-Andre Fleury, rated the most desirable goalie RFA by some, will not be a restricted free agent this year.

The Penguins are taking him to arbitration. This is a good move by the team, it buys them some time. If Fleury hit the market on July 1, there was a pretty good chance some team might have given him an offer sheet of a ridiculous amount of money. The Pens would be in the uncomfortable situation to match it and pay more than they wanted to, or let Fleury go and since Ty Conklin is a free agent, have a huge hole in the depth chart at goalie.

Arbitration, which runs from the end of July to early August buys more time to negotiate before the hearing. Players and teams can make comparable analysis, meaning only RFAs can be used. We think this is good for the Pens, after all Carolina's Cam Ward is the same age and has similiar stats and, oh yeah a Stanley Cup. Ward signed $8 million for 3 years ($2.66 million cap hit). Buffalo's Ryan Miller got that same contract three years ago and had similiar numbers/regard as Fleury does now.

Both sides will probably be looking for a long-term contract in the weeks to come, but by taking Fleury to arbitration, the Pens have essentially just pulled him out of the fire and won't allow other teams to even think of making an offer.

Sunny side of free agency...

The Penguins have more unrestricted free agents of consquence than any other NHL team this summer. Since you're probably interested in hockey by your reading of this blog, this is not a news-flash. Players will be departing, and that will draw a lot of attention. After all, we've cheered for these guys, followed their career paths for years and some will be finding new places to play.

But in their place will come others. Ray Shero has had some success in bringing in vets on short-term contracts (Petr Sykora, Gary Roberts) and some ones he'd probably like back (Mark Recchi, Darryl Sydor). Who's this year's candidates?

We're anticipating, as of this moment, the Pens need three skill players to fill out their top six forwards. We're only counting on Sykora, Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby to be the top forwards this fall. If Ryan Malone or Marian Hossa re-signed that would be awesome, but let's even think of them as goners for the time being. The Penguins have about $27 million committed to 11 roster players for next season. They'll want to leave wiggle room for deals for Marc-Andre Fleury and big contracts that will kick in the following season (Malkin and Jordan Staal), which is why they can't just appease guys like Malone and Hossa with longterm contracts today.

Keep in mind the below named aren't a list of players that will end up in Pittsburgh, just a little exercise to keep our minds off of the subtractions and look to new additions...

So here's some skilled forwards set to be unrestricted free agents that would look good lining up on Crosby or Malkin's wings next fall.....But then again, who wouldn't look good on those two's wings?

• Cory Stillman (OTT, $1.75 million)-- Ottawa has alot of money locked up in a few players (Spezza, Heatley, Fisher, Alfeddsson) and still needs deals for Meszaros and Vermette. Stillman scored 24 goals and had 41 assists between Carolina and Ottawa last season and has two Stanley Cup rings. At age 34 he's veteran but not too over-the-hill. He's a pretty reliable bet to have about a 25 goal/45 assist season.
• Brian Rolston (MIN, $2.432 milion)--Rolston's scored 30+ goals in all three seasons since the lockout. Even at age 35 he's an extremely fast skater, is defensively orientated and probably has one of the top ten slapshots in the league. He's got the wheels, hands and hockey sense to keep up with Crosby.
• Ladislav Nagy (LA, $3.75 million)-- The Penguins are going to have to be almost like the Oakland A's in finding talent; sometimes it has to come with a defiency or two. Nagy has knocks against him: he's doesn't seem to give his maximum effort every night, he's not a playoff performer and this will now be the third team not too devastated to see him leave. Nagy does have a ton of skill and age 29 he's a lot younger than most other UFAs.
• Vinny Prospal (PHI, $1.9 million)-- Prospal is a very consistent and steady offensive player. This past season was his best too in terms of goal scoring with 33 between stints in Tampa and Philly. Prospal seemed to run out of gas when he played the Pens, but was a diference maker in series before it.
• Kristian Huselius (CGY, $1.4 million)-- Huselius seemed to be forever in the dog house in Calgary but look at his average season over the past two years (29.5 goals and 42 assists) and it's hard not to be impressed by the numbers. He rode shotgun with Jarome Iginla, so playing on a line with a star wouldn't be anything new.

If the Penguins lost Malone and or Hossa but were able to reload with a name or two off the above list for a reasonable rate and term, it might not be the end of the world.

Of course, there's still a lot to play out, the real "fun" of speculation, signings and shock hasn't begun yet. But just remember, for every loss there's going to have to be a replacement to fill the ranks. How Shero finds them will obviously go a long way's in determining the mentality and set-up of the team for this season and the years to come.

Pieces of the puzzle for 2008-09

Here’s what Shero is dealing with….If next season started today, here’s how the Pens lineup looks (for players under contract or at least RFA's-to-be). Consider this basically your first look at the Pens lineup for 2008-09:

_____-Crosby-_____
_____-Malkin-Sykora
_____-Staal-Kennedy
Stone-Talbot-Filewich

Gill/Gonchar
Whitney/Letang
Goligoski/Scuderi
Sydor

Fleury*
Sabourin

*Fleury is the most notable restricted free agent. Staal and Malkin have contracts for next season but will likely get extensions this summer…But of course you knew that…

As you can see, we’re projecting right now that Ryan Stone, Jonathan Filewich and Alex Goligoski make the jump from the minors to the show. The more obvious point is the glaring holes at skill forward positions. Plus questions on if the defense is deep and physical enough to get back to where everyone wants to be.

Roughly the Penguins could have about $25-30 million to make it happen. You could sign guys like Marian Hossa and Ryan Malone for that. But the kicker is that guys like Fleury, Malkin and Staal will be making more in the years to come. That’s where the issue of signing a guy like Malone or Hossa long-term just doesn’t jive. The Pens might be able to afford paying big bucks for one year (while Malkin/Staal are on entry level contracts) but there’s no room to fit them long-term. Plus, due to the nature of the business (and namely guaranteed contracts) it’d be foolish for a guy a Hossa to take a 1 year deal when another city will offer him 6, 7, 8 years. If he were to blow out his knee while on that one year contract, there wouldn’t be the safety net of that guaranteed contract.

Needless to say, it’ll be interesting to see how Shero handles filling out the roster. He’s done well to sign his veterans (like Sykora, Sydor, Gary Roberts) to just one or two seasons in a time where the rest of the league it largely handing out huge terms to players. Shero’s most pressing immediate need is obviously finding some skilled wingers for Crosby and fitting guys like Malkin, Fleury and Staal into the contract jig-saw puzzle. Hopefully the signings will be of the more effective Sykora variety than the largely ineffective Sydor signing, which is going to eat up $2.5 million on the cap if he’s not bought out/traded/retired behind a barn somewhere.

Depth wise, a guy like Max Talbot could jump up and play 3rd line wing or if the Pens re-sign Pascal Dupuis or another like-minded grinding, defensively aware, hard working winger that should suffice there. The biggest and most pressing concern is making Line 1 not look like a helicopter (because it has no wings!) and trying to get Marc-Andre Fleury under contract before another team gets the chance to present him an offer sheet.

Actions speak louder than words...

Yahoo! says:

Hossa expects his agent, Rich Winter, to start talking with Shero soon.

“I’d rather take less and play on a good team,” Hossa said. “Hopefully, I can return here and be part of this organization but, with the salary cap, I know how hard it is. There’s lots of players to be signed, so we’ll see what’s going to happen.”

If we're Penguins general manager Ray Shero, we go to Hossa and his representatives bright and early Monday morning and say the following....

"Hey Hoss, you were great for us, everything we wanted when we went out and traded a large chunk of the future for you. Things went great, you came in, worked hard and produced big time points. We'd love to keep you. You say you're willing to take a little less for a good team and you know you'll never find a better situation than playing with Crosby, the best playmaking center in the game. Sid took about $1.5 million less a season to help us keep everything together. We're gonna ask you to do the same, because we have to. So here's an offer for $42 million over six years. As you know, it's guaranteed money. Let's gear up and go again, we want you back and, due to the circumstances, you know this is the best we can do. Surely you could get more money from a team in July, but you won't be with Crosby and this club. Think about it."

If he signs, awesome. If not, the most important word in the Hossa quote above is the one we highlighted for emphasis.

Shero was in Toronto so he must be after Sundin

Ray Shero took in last night’s Florida blowout of Toronto. Which, less than three weeks before the trade deadline leads to the obvious speculation that he was there for more than just a routine visit.

This article, as you’d expect from one written in Toronto, suggests Shero could be targeting Leafs’ captain Mats Sundin or Florida captain Olli Jokinen. Hey, go big or go home, right?

Aside from the obvious, which apparently isn’t obvious to those north of the border writers, here’s why it won’t happen.

Jokinen won’t be a Penguin because:

• They’re 1 point out of the division lead. The Southeast has devolved into a 4 team slugfest, at this point looking like only the winner will be in the playoffs. A team doesn’t trade their captain and best offensive player when they’re so close to the playoffs.
  He has 3 more years on his contract, and it’s pretty favorable for the Panthers. They’re not going to trade him and downgrade their chances just because he has supposedly has heat with management. It is true that winning cures all, and if they do that, obviously everyone’s happy.
• Even if Florida was interested in a trade, the cost would be far too high. Playing devil’s advocate, if we’re the Florida GM the first thing we’d ask for is someone the Pens aren’t going to deal (Jordan Staal). But if Pittsburgh wants to acquire a top flight player, they’re going to have to pay a king’s ransom, something for the Pens to consider. Simply Erik Christensen and a draft pick is not going to be enough.

Sundin won’t be a Penguin because:

• The most obvious reason is he holds the cards. Sundin has a no trade clause and doesn’t have to go anywhere. In fact, all his public comments to this point have said he doesn’t intend to leave Toronto; neither now nor this summer when he could be a UFA. Players have waived NTCs (Gary Roberts, Georges Laraque) to join the Pens as a contender but they don’t necessarily have to.

• Again the return is going to be too high. Shero has said his philosophy is to build through the draft and not trade high picks. Toronto will surely want a young player in the organization (like maybe EC or Alex Goligoski), an impressive prospect (like Angelo Esposito) and definitely the Pens 1st round pick this season. That’s too much a price to rent Mats Sundin for a couple months, especially given the Pens depth at center when Crosby returns.

So throw the big guns out of your mind…Think of what Michel Therrien said the Penguins need; a touch defenseman. Since we’ve ruled Florida out as sellers, someone sticks out in Toronto’s lineup….Which is easy to do, because he’s 6’7”.

We’re talking Hal Gill. For his mis-comings (not pretty skating at times) he’s earned a bad rap to the average fan. But consider some of his finer attributes:
--102 blocked shots, 82 hits this season. That would rank him 1st and 2nd in those respective categories among Penguins.

--A manageable salary of just over $2 million (which mean it would cost about an additional $600,000 to add him for the remainder of this year) plus next year he makes $2.1 million.
At 32 years old, he’s not over the hill like some other defenseman that could be on the trade block.

--Despite averaging over 21 minutes of ice-time a night for one of the league’s sloppiest and worst teams, Gill’s +/- is a respectable -3.

--Unlike current Penguins defensive defenseman, Gill can actually do something with the puck, as evidenced by his output of 2 goals and 17 assists. Even those modest stats are better than Rob Scuderi, Brooks Orpik and Darryl Sydor….Combined. Plus Gill has more assists than Ryan Whitney. Just sayin’.

We’re not saying the Pens will 100% certainly bring Hal Gill in. But given his skill-set, salary situation and place on the team, it seems a lot more realistic to see Shero rather than try to acquire Gill than look seriously into the Sundin Sweepstakes (too expensive) or the Jokinen Jackpot (which probably doesn’t exist).

Frankie Beauchemin

TSN reports:

The Ducks' committed payroll for next season is the issue. With Niedermayer potentially returning, and with another year left on his contract after this season, the Ducks could not add him to the roster now without freeing up cap room for next season. In the new CBA, it's called 'tagging' room and the Ducks don't have enough of it next season to allow Niedermayer back on the roster this season – unless they move a player who is under contract for next season.

Multiple NHL sources confirm the Ducks have been active in trade talks this week trying to do exactly that.

Sources suggest the Ducks are prepared to move any defenceman other than Chris Pronger who is under contract for next season. That list includes Mathieu Schneider, Francois Beauchemin and Sean O'Donnell

Perhaps it's just the internet whispers that never come true, but word is that Ducks are looking for a young player (obviously inexpensive) and a high draft pick.

During the Ilya Bryzgalov sweepstakes, whenever the Penguins were mentioned there was also mentions of Erik Christensen. Again, perhaps 100% rumor, but sometimes where there is smoke there is fire.

I'm not big into trading a 1st round pick AND a young player and I know Ray Shero isn't either, but in this specific situation I think I would do it. I think Frankie Beauchemin is possibly the best player in the league that never gets talked about, especially on the east coast where fans never get to see him play. Some stats for the blueliner:

• Leads all NHL players with 28:30 icetime
• Has a -3 +/- rating, the same as Chris Pronger
• 27 hits, 26 blocked shots, 12 takeaways....Not a physical monster, but not ragdoll

But his true value can't be quantified in raw data, but rather his play on the ice for nearly half of the game. So why would the Ducks trade FB instead of someone like Schneider or Brown? Well both those players are old, and Schneider has that huge $5.6 cap hit this year and next. We've seen how hard it is to trade players, even with modest contracts and value (Bryzgalov, Recchi, etc). Trades nowadays are infrequent.

Obviously I wouldn't want any young player (Staal, Letang) dealt, and clearly Shero isn't going to be moving them anyways. But some combination of Christensen, high pick or defensive prospect Alex Goligoski? Bring it on.

Getting a player like Beauchemin could be instrumental in a turnaround for the Penguins. This could be almost as impactful as the Ron Francis or Rick Tocchet deals made that propelled the Pens to Stanley Cups.