Baby Pens doing some winning too

Pittsburgh's NHL squad isn't the only team in the organization off to a good post-season start. The Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins are up 1 game to none over one of their rivals the Hershey Bears (Washington's AHL team).

Wilkes-Barre is in a unique situation; since Pittsburgh had so many injuries it pulled many of their players away. Eight players in the Baby Pens lineup for Game 1 (Chris Minard, Tim Brent, Connor James, Alex Goligoski, Alain Nasreddine, Nathan Smith, Jonathan Filewich and Ryan Stone) saw NHL action this season, combining for 62 games played "in the show". And this doesn't even count contributors like Jeff Taffe, Tyler Kennedy, Kris Letang who've all graduated to the NHL. Or the only goaltender with experience, Ty Conklin. By contrast only 2 of Hershey's players (Sami Lepitso and Chris Bourque) played with the Caps and they combined for just 11 games. We should point out they did graduate Quintin Laing and Eric Fehr and Coach Bruce Boudreau to the NHL.

Regardless of the higher level experience, the Baby Pens face two large hurdles: 1)having two rookie goaltenders on their roster (compared to the seasoned Freddy Cassivi that Hershey has) and 2)generating consistent offense.

Wednesday night they only got 2 goals (from James and Minard) but it was enough for a 2-1 over-time winner.

This series will be interesting to keep an eye on. Both of these AHL clubs are no stranger to post-season success, and very fimiliar with one another. If the Baby Pens goaltending stays strong and they can find a scoring spark they should have no problem advancing deep into the Calder Cup trophies....Just like the other team in the organization.

Two Draft Picks to Join Baby Pens

According to Bombulie, the Penguins signed two 2007 draft picks Luca Caputi and Keven Veilleux to Amateur Try-Out contracts. ATOs are good for the player (gives them a little bit of monetary gain and a chance to make the team) plus they are good for the organization as they don't count against the 40 SPC's (standard player contracts) that they have, which is obviously near the limit this late in the season. Plus, to our intrepretation, the player on an ATO doesn't start on their traditional three year entry level contract (and start the clock ticking towards unrestricted free agency).

The Baby Pens have a pretty deep set of forwards, but lack explosive offensive players. It will be interesting to see how much of a chance they give Caputi (who scored 111 pointss in the OHL). Veilleux is a 6'5 center who was about a point-per-game player in the Q.

The AHL playoffs are less about developing these young players and more about sticking with who got ya there and trying to win. Mike Richards and Jeff Carter signed ATOs and really jumped out for the Philadelphia Phantoms but they are the exception, not the rule. Still, it's good to get some prospects in and training/practicing with the team to get a taste of how intense the professional level gets.

Mirtle, Buccigross weigh in

Noted blog-ologist James Mirtle (MD) weighed in on the big issue that will dominate our summer: just how in the heck the Penguins are going to make this work...

But if you're looking for the window, it's small.

Case in point, the Penguins, who have two incredible stars complemented by some pretty nice young talent. Despite the relative youth of Pittsburgh's lineup, the fact that both Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are both going to command near-max contracts in the near future necessitates that the team-building process is sped up.

Forget the fact that this might be before their time — the Penguins' window is right now, when someone like Malkin can win a Hart Trophy and still be paid under $4-million next season.

Pittsburgh has $27-million committed for 2008-09, but there are about eight significant unrestricted free agent holes coming July 1, and Marc-Andre Fleury, an RFA, is due a raise. Come the season after next, 2009-10, and Malkin and Crosby are making $9-million a season, or about one-third of the Penguins' cap, and Jordan Staal is due a new deal.

There's no room, in other words, for a Marian Hossa, who will command an enormous deal as a 29-year-old UFA. Think $50-million plus over seven years and find a spot for that behemoth long term

Mirtle was probably citing nhlnumbers.com (a must read for NHL contract details), but if you look down the column for 08/09 contracts, their numbers tally nine players under contract for$26.8 million. But one can clearly see, as we did earlier tonight, that the Penguins do have 15 players (including possible farmhand Chris Minard) as being under contract. Tally up the cap hits (the number on the left) and that's where we got the $34 million figure. NHLNumbers is probably a little behind with the Gill trade and the site doesn't seem to have included players that will be under contracts on their entry year deals next season (Malkin, Staal, Kennedy, Letang, etc).

Not that what Mirtle writes is far off; yes Crosby, Malkin and Staal will be eating up a large chunk of the cap and Hossa will command a ton of money.

No one can tell what will happen in the future; case in point this time last year it was a "given" that Crosby would be signing league maximum and he didn't. Will Malkin sign for $8 million? $9 million? More? Less? No one knows and speculation on it is too hard to predict until it actually happens.

Mirtle went on to cite a recent John Buccigross column where Bucci actually seriously made a pitch for the Penguins to trade Malkin this summer. Hah!*

A lot of people point to Tampa Bay as an example why an NHL team can't spend such a huge chunk of their alloted cap space/budget on just 3 or 4 players. Those same people don't usually point out that Tampa was well under the salary cap due to be up for sale and couldn't round out their team very well.

Similiarly Pittsburgh is quite a bit under the cap. Their billionare owner has seemed to take bigger interest in the team now that: A)There's a new cash-cow arena on the horizon, B)The team is winning and C)It's a hot product, they're selling out every single night.

If Ron Burkle is really willing to take a little bit of a hit in the pocketbook (and for his bank account the word "little" should be stressed) for the short-term to keep the team intact before new revenue streams from the state of the art 18,000+ arena, the nucleus will stay intact and management should be able to surround more skill around their stars than the uncertain situation in Tampa.

At the end of the day, it's not how you spend it, it's who you spend it on. Some teams like the Rangers will give a combined $14 million on two players longterm (Chris Drury, Scott Gomez and Henrik Lundqvist). Philly's spending about $23 million longterm on 4 players (Daniel Briere, Mike Richards, Scott Hartnell and Kimmo Timonen). Pittsburgh's probably going to be in that neighborhood on three players, but those players are Crosby, Malkin and Staal. Pittsburgh's players are a lot younger and will easily outplay any of the above named

We're not predicting for sure the Pens can/should retain Hossa, but it might be a little more of a possibility than most think it is right now....Hey, Gary Roberts was running right back to Toronto or Ottawa just as soon as he hit FA too, right? Sure the situation couldn't be more different between an aging player and a superstar in his prime, but the point is almost everyone in the media proclaimed Roberts to be a rental, and he ended up back.


*Although, in a very brief moment of weakness, we must confess did think how it would be if Nashville offered Alex Radulov, Shea Weber, Dan Hamhuis and a 1st rounder for Malkin and Ryan Whitney's $4 million deal

AND DOWN THE STRETCH THEY COME!!

The top of the Eastern Conference tomorrow morning:

1. New Jersey Devils 86 points

Record in last ten games: 7-2-1

13 games remaining (6 home, 7 road)

Division games left: 9 (3 vs. Rangers, 2 vs. NYI, 2 vs. Philly, 2 vs. Pittsburgh)

Other games: at Montreal, at Minnesota, at Colorado, Boston

2. Montreal Canadiens 85 points

Record in last ten games: 6-4-0

12 games remaining (8 home, 4 road)

Division games left: 9 (3 vs. Ottawa, 2 vs. Boston, 2 vs. Buffalo, 2 vs. Toronto)

Other games: New Jersey, NYI, St Louis

3. Carolina Hurricanes 79 points

Record in last ten games: 7-2-1

11 games remaining (5 home, 6 road)

Division games left: 8 (2 vs. Atlanta, 2 vs. Florida, 2 vs. Tampa, 2 vs. Washington)

Other games: at Chicago, at Buffalo, Ottawa

4. Pittsburgh Penguins 85 points

Record in last ten games: 5-3-2

12 games remaining (7 home, 5 road)

Division games left: 10 (3 vs. Rangers, 3 vs. Philly, 2 vs. NYI , 2 vs. Devils)

Other games: Buffalo, Tampa

5. Ottawa Senators 83 points

Record in last ten games: 3-5-2

12 games remaining (6 home, 6 road)

Division games left: 10 (3 vs. Boston, 2 vs. Montreal, 2 vs. Buffalo, 2 vs. Toronto)

Other games: at Carolina, St. Louis

6. New York Rangers 83 points

Record in last ten games: 8-0-2

12 games remaining (6 home, 6 road)

Division games left: 10 (3 vs. New Jersey, 3 vs. Pittsburgh , 2 vs. NYI, 2 vs. Philly)

Other games: at Florida, at Tampa Bay

7. Boston Bruins 80 points

Record in last ten games: 6-2-2

13 games remaining (6 home, 7 road)

Division games left: 9 (3 vs. Ottawa, 3 vs. Buffalo, 2 vs. Montreal, 2 vs. Toronto)

Other games: Tampa, Philly, at Washington, at New Jersey

8. Philadelphia Flyers 78 points

Record in last ten games: 5-2-3

13 games remaining (6 home, 7 road)

Division games left: 9 (3 vs. Pittsburgh, 2 vs. NJ Devils , 2 vs. Rangers, 2 vs. NYI)

Other games: at Toronto, Toronto, at Boston, Atlanta

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Looking at how 7 of the teams are from two divisions and given how many times they play each other there should be no doubt in your mind that "playoff hockey"--that is extremely physical, tight checking games with little in the way of taking too many risks--will be in full effect these final few weeks of the season.

Edmonton and Pittsburgh scouting each other?

Before the deadline we will also profile the few "sellers" at this year's market. Given that so many teams are in the hunt for a playoff berth this late in the season (only Los Angeles is truly out of the hunt) this will be short. Today's whispers: Edmonton

Take the source with a grain of salt, but....

Keep an eye on the Edmonton Oilers come deadline time…I have a sneaky suspicion that they have interest in a Penguin player or two…quite possibly Erik Christensen. They have been scouting the Pens a good bit lately…could be nothing, could be something…you never know this time of year.

As the old saying goes, ya gotta give something to get something and the name that never really goes away from trade speculation is Christensen. Surely if there is a roster player moved in the next week he figures to be the #1 guy.

Ray Shero says his MO is to continue to build through the draft but he has been willing to throw picks to acquire Georges Laraque and Nils Ekman..Shero seems (wisely) averse to dealing his first round pick; which many deals this time of year come with as a prerequisite (scroll down to the next post if you don't believe).

For their part Edmonton could use more draft picks after the Dustin Penner RFA fiasco gutted their arsenal and the Oil is all but out of contention (9 points out of 8th place with six teams to climb over) so it makes sense they'd be looking to "sell".

Possible targets of interest
``Well you can probably throw out a guy like Ales Hemsky. He's signed for years to come and his price is too valuable to the Oilers for the Penguins to meet. We're talking attainable:

• Marty Reasoner Edmonton already traded their current captain (at the '04 deadline for Sergei Samsonov) and he returned as a UFA so he is the definition of a pure rental. Reasoner's got great wheels, and has won 52.1% of his faceoffs. He'd be a great depth guy for the Pens to get for a playoff run
• Steve Staios A veteran defenseman with playoff experience and a tough edge Staios is practically the embodiment of what the Penguins need the most. He has 60 hits and 133 blocked shots this season and his offensive stats (6 goals, 5 assists) put him head and shoulders above the Orpik's, Sydor's and Scuderi's of the Pens lineup. But Staios is signed at a pretty reasonable rate ($2.7 million cap hit) through the 2010-11 season so it's not a given that he's on the market.

The Penguins and Oilers shared Wilkes-Barre's club last season and both teams must be more than familiar with each other's young talent. Fans often fantisize about JF Jacques or MA Poilout could do with the Pens top 6 but it doesn't stand to reason that the Oil would sell any young forward of promise away when they can simply build around them.

Something to keep an eye on, for sure.

Trade Season

Today's big Ottawa-Carolina transaction may have just opened up the trade deadline season.

Along with the NHL Entry Draft, the deadline day wheelings and dealings may be our 2nd favorite non-gameplay hockey event. Here at TST we've compiled a deep analysis of how trade deadline deals (namely rentals) have effected teams over the past couple years, both the buyers and sellers. We also have a part 2 that shows any moves past Stanley Cup Champions have made. Expect those to be out next week.

For now, here's a list of players that could be changing locations by month's end that we wouldn't mind seeing in the black and vegas gold. Keep in mind there's a myriad of complications (no trade clauses, other team demanding too much in return, etc) that could make a lot of these guys pipe dreams. But if we were running a hockey team---and the last time we checked, no such luck, here's a list of guys that would definitely be on the radar to improve a contender, especially one with the needs of the Penguins.

We're not going to include guys like Hossa, Sundin or Jokinen....While they'd no doubt be terrific acquisitions they don't seem likely to wind up in Pittsburgh. Also Buffalo may well trade Brian Campbell but the Penguins don't need a puck moving defenseman, they need muscle so it doesn't make sense. Think of this as a realistic wishlist. Also, we're going to only point out teams that are likely to be sellers at the deadline, or if they have an impending UFA they might move.

**Also, remember that, to this point contracts are about 2/3 of the way paid, since the season is about 2/3 of the way completed. So if the Penguins pick up someone with a salary of $5 million, they only have to pay the balance of the contract which would add about $1.66 million to the payroll (minus of course any salaries they end up trading). It's been reported the Penguins do have a couple million within their team budget to rise, so seemingly it'll be on Shero, and not the accountants to make this work.**


Columbus
Mike Peca: 43 games, 4 goals 21 assists, -1....Winning 55.4% of his faceoffs. Salary is $1.3 million, UFA at season's end.
Adam Foote: $4.6 million salary, UFA at end of the year

Edmonton
Steve Staios: 57 gp, 6g, 5a, -12, 56 hits, 126 blocked shots. Signed for two more seasons after this one (cap hit of $2.7 million). Is 33 years old and would make a good defensive defenseman on a contender.

Los Angeles
Rob Blake
Jaroslav Modry: 57gp, 1g 2a, -2, 34 hits, 91 blocked shots...36 years old, $1.2 million dollar contract and a UFA at season's end
Dan Cloutier: (just seeing if you're paying attention!)

New York Islanders
Mike Sillinger: 52 gp, 14g, 10a, -10, winning 56.3% of faceoffs...Is 36 years old and signed next year for $2.3 million
Miroslav Satan: 54gp, 11g 19a, -4....UFA at season's end ($4.5 million salary this season).

If the Penguins want another skilled winger for Crosby and Malkin, this could be a guy to watch for. The Islanders and Penguins might make weary trade partners, being as they're division rivals but if Pittsburgh offers them a chance to improve themselves, the Islanders have little choice but to make the deal. These teams might not like each other, but it's not Pittsburgh/Philly or NYR/NYI type hate.

St. Louis Blues
Barrett Jackman: 50 gp, 1g, 4a, -16, 21:51 TOI, 95 hits, 81 blocked shots...$2.2 million salary, UFA at season's end.

It's been reported in the media that extention talks have broken down between the Blues and Jackman's camp, a major stickng point on money. It looks like Jackman might test the open market, and that's a good idea because NHL teams love physical defensemen entering the prime of their careers. If the Blues (2-6-2 in last ten games) continue to slip down the standings the very savvy John Davidson might be inclined to at least get something in return for the former Calder trophy winner.

Tampa Bay Lightning
Vincent Prospal: 56gp, 23g, 28a, -6. $1.9 salary, set to be a UFA in July

Perhaps the most skilled forward that might be a realistic option for the Pens. But even though Tampa is 15th place in the East, they're only 7 points (and a game in hand) back on the Caps. And they're 6-3-1 in the past 10, so it's not as if they've rolled over for dead just yet. So it's still feasible that the Lightning might not be the sellers they were thought to have been even a week ago.

Toronto Maple Leafs
Hal Gill



That's it, that's the list, have at it.

Target: Adam Foote?

It's no secret that the Blue Jacket's have had several scouts at Penguins game. Even though it seems when this was reported it was a game in Pittburgh (short trip from Columbus) and the Pens were playing the Rangers (another team the BJ's have reportedly scouted a lot, spawning the David Vyborny for Petr Prucha rumors).

Just off of needs, one transaction that would make sense for the Pens would be inquiring about Adam Foote. He's a great defensive defenseman, a leader, has won a Cup and as tough as they come; which we all know are traits and attributes in high demand this time of year for contenders.

But hold the phone; thanks to a series of moves over the past year or so (the firing of incompetant GM Don McLean, the hiring of Ken Hitchcock and his installation of his great system) the BJ's have finally become a competitive team. With so many teams so close to being in playoff contention, Columbus isn't your typical "seller" this season; less than five teams are at this point.

The clock is ticking however, with 27 games remaining the Jackets sit four points out of the playoffs, with perhaps more importantly three teams to climb over and two others right on their heald. Plus we're not T-3 weeks to the trading deadline. BJ GM Scott Howson has some decisions to make and he spelled out the specific factors that will lead to dealing or keeping Foote, a UFA to be.

1. The state of team – is it surging or slumping
2. Health of the team – can the Jackets realistically make a run with the players in place
3. Standings
4. How many teams must they leap frog to get to the final spot.

We've outlined points #3 and #4, as far as #1 goes they're 4-5-1 over the past 10 games, which is not going to get it done when two of the teams they need to beat out (Phoenix 5-2-3, Nashville 7-2-1) are clicking at a significantly better pace.

Their health, for now, seems fine; they just added former Penguins leading scorer Dick Tarnstrom to their defensive core and it seems their breakout goalie sensation Pascal Leclaire could be back in the net as soon as Saturday. Leclaire went down the other night against Washington with a neck sprain when his crease got crashed, with a little help from a BJ dman. If Leclaire's prognosis was worse, the health becomes a huge issue, but it appears they dodge a bullet there and will not be in trouble.

It's also important to note that Foote is their captain and--like so many veterans, holds a no-trade clause so any trade will have to be approved by him before it can be completed.

Just another option to think about for Pens fans and a situation in Ohio to keep half an eye on. They have a pretty critical matchup tonight against the surprisingly upstart Coyotes.

(hat-tip to kuklaskorner for the link)