Our James Mirtle League Fantasy Team

At the risk of a self-centered post that most will have little to no interest in, here's the team we drafted last night in one of James Mirtle's pools that we were fortunate enough to be allowed in.

We're trying to make our own fantasy hockey league, to draft later this week so if you're interested shoot a line to hooksorpik at gmail.com and you'll receive the information.

Anyways, keep in mind Mirtle set up a huge 20 player deep pool, with a randomly selected picks. We got pick 7 in the odd rounds and with snaking it ended up being pick 13 in the even rounds. So after 7th overall we didn't pick until 34th overall. With that in mind here's our team:

Centers: Eric Staal, Anze Kopitar, Jordan Staal, Maxime Talbot, Erik Christensen

Wingers: Brad Boyes, Thomas Vanek, Rostislav Olesz, Bobby Ryan, Ales Kotalik, Darcy Tucker, Guilliame Latendresse

Defensemen: Kevin Bieksa, Pavel Kubina, Kris Letang, Tom Poti, Daniel Girardi

Goaltenders: Evgeni Nabokov, Kari Lehtonen

Clearly our wagon is more or less hitched to 7th overall pick Nabokov, who's not a bad guy to have to rely on in head-to-head leagues. We were also happy to see that despite the league's incredibly depth (20 players is by far the biggest pool we've been in) we were able to nab four players who scored 32+ goals last season and some young up-and-comers (Olesz, J. Staal, Ryan, Letang) that could have breakthrough years.

It remains to be seen how we'll compete with Mirtle, who won his own pool last year in this league. He, of course, has a formidable team with significant depth at forward and in the net.

2007-08 Eastern Conference Forecast

Thanks to the whacky idea to play two games in England, ready or not here comes the NHL season this Saturday. I guess I better make a forecast like everyone else, just so we can re-visit this in about 6 months and look at how much of a dope I was....Here goes:

Atlantic Division
1. Pittsburgh Penguins
2. New York Rangers
3. New Jersey Devils
4. Philadelphia Flyers
5. New York Islanders

­-Every year, much like the Atlanta Braves of the ‘90s, people predict New Jersey’s downfall, as they attempt to replace proven talent with stop-gap measures (Zubrus, Vishnevski this year) and/or young players (Parise, Martin, etc). And every year, they keep on ticking…I got Pittsburgh as #1, a trendy pick, but one I honestly believe, given their lineup and how strongly they played against the division last season. Just like days of old, the Rangers made the sexiest free agent signings, and Philly seemingly turned over about their whole roster. I like 3-4 playoff teams from this division. Maybe this is the year that Brodeur shows his age and NJ falls off, but I’m not bold enough to predict it, they’ve proven me wrong too many times.

Northeast Division
1. Ottawa Senators
2. Montreal Canadiens
3. Buffalo Sabres
4. Toronto Maple Leafs
5. Boston Bruins

--Tough one to call. Boston, IMO, is the best team I have in the basement league wide, but they’re still their. It’s easy to leave Buffalo for dead after they bungled the Briere and Drury signings, so I did. I like what Montreal could possibly do. Ottawa is the consensus #1 and the reigning Eastern Conference heavyweight, but even they had a very slow start in this brutal division last season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that happen to Toronto, and them not having the firepower to dig out of the hole.

Southeast Division
1. Tampa Bay Lightning
2. Carolina Hurricanes
3. Washington Capitals
4. Florida Panthers
5. Atlanta Thrashers

--I’m leaving Atlanta for dead here, they’ve got basically no one up the middle and their defense isn’t that formidable. It’s a coin toss between two recent unlikely SC champs at the top, I’ll give the edge to Vinny and Marty over Eric and Rod. Washington will delight the locals in grandeurs of a playoff run, but fall short this year, probably with some obscure injury that Caps fans heavy blogosphere will decry all off-season.

Playoff teams (no particular order):
Pittsburgh, Ottawa, Tampa Bay (division winners)
New York Rangers, New Jersey, Carolina, Montreal, Buffalo

Just missing it (this year's Colorado, Montreal or Toronto):
Philadelphia, Washington

Somewhat competitive but not enough:
Toronto, Boston, Florida


It's gonna be a long, cold winter:
New York Islanders, Atlanta

2007-08 Western Conference Forecast

Thanks to the whacky idea to play two games in England, ready or not here comes the NHL season this Saturday. I guess I better make a forecast like everyone else, just so we can re-visit this in about 6 months and look at how much of a dope I was....Here goes:

Central Division
1. Detroit Red Wings
2. St. Louis Blues
3. Nashville Predators
4. Chicago Blackhawks
5. Columbus BJs

--Detroit's the king of this division, Nashville took a huge step back. I like St. Louis as my surprise team...Adding Tkachuk, Kariya (cha-cha-cha) up front and #1 pick Erik Johnson to the blueline should be good enough to have them challenging for the last playoff seed. I like Chicago's core of talent, but I think they're going to need another year to get those young forwards up to speed.

Northwest Division
1. Vancouver Canucks
2. Colorado Avalanche
3. Calgary Flames
4. Minnesota Wild
5. Edmonton Oilers

--The top 4 in this division should all make the playoffs, their order is hard to predict, because each team has it's weakness: Luongo is the man for Vancouver but do they have the firepower? Colorado looks revamped by adding Ryan Smyth and Scott Hannan, but what's their goalie situation? Calgary has Kipper and a tough D, but what's that kook Iron Mike going to bring to the table? Minnesota has the raw talent, and defensive system, but keeping Gaborik off the shelf has has it's challenges. Edmonton will stink, but that's not news.

Pacific Division
1. San Jose Sharks
2. Anaheim Ducks
3. Dallas Stars
4. Los Angeles Kings
5. Phoenix Coyotes

--The Stanley Cup hangover is in effect for the Ducks, who may or may not have their captain Scott Niedermayer (great leadership and decision making their, Cap). Every year I pick San Jose to breakout out in a big way, and usually they disappoint. I like Dallas, but they just don't seem to have "it". LA could be a surprise team, but how will all their new faces mesh? Again, the only thing for sure is it's going to be a long season for #99, if he sticks with that club all year I'll be impressed.

Playoff teams (no particular order):
Detroit, Vancouver, San Jose (division winners)
Anaheim, Colorado, Calgary, Minnesota, Dallas

Just missing it (this year's Colorado, Montreal or Toronto):
St. Louis, LA

Somewhat competitive but not enough:
Chicago and Nashville

It's gonna be a long, cold winter:
Columbus, Phoenix, Edmonton

TY v. LY --Production

Last year's production:

Projected Top 6 (Crosby, Malkin, Staal, Recchi, Sykora, Christensen):
463 games played, 163 goals

Projected Bottom 6 (Malone, Roberts, Talbot, Armstrong, Ruutu, Laraque):
442 gp, 73 goals

Defensive contribution (Gonchar, Whitney, Letang, Sydor):
34 goals in 244 total games played

***While the top 6 obviously gets more icetime and the precious powerplay time, the bottom 6 forwards chipped in quite a few goals last season. Many 'Big' goals were scored by players like Talbot and Armstrong, either to win a game, or to force overtime. One of the lower 6 guys, on average, would score every game (well, .99 goals per combined average games). That is great secondary scoring support to take the pressure of guys like Crosby and Malkin. This will need to be replicated in 07-08.

***Offensively Brooks Orpik and Mark Eaton bring nothing to the table, so we omit them completely. If they pop in the odd goal, all the better. Whitney and Gonchar feasted on the powerplay, and figure to do so again. Kris Letang surely will improve on his 2 goals 0 assist cup of coffee from 06-07. These guys are dangerous to jump into the play but also to convert passes from Crosby and Malkin on the powerplay. Last year it was a average of .55 goals a game, combining all four players efforts.

***That the defensemen and lower line forwards scored, on average, 1.48 goals per game is huge for the skill forwards. That's a lot of support and balance that opens up even more room for the skill players.

I'd expect the top 6 will combine for more than 163 this year; Crosby improves every year, Malkin isn't a rookie and I expect him to beat 33 goals, Christensen netted 18 in just 61 games and Sykora scored but 23 goals on a woeful Edmonton team. Recchi is slowing down with age, but even he 'only' scored 24 goals last year. Whether or not Jordan Staal can replicate his 29 goal rookie showing might be the biggest question mark, but even if he doesn't, I believe the first four names (especially Malkin and EC) will pick up that slack.


THIS YEAR: PROJECTIONS

Top 6
492 games played, 175 goals

Bottom 6
492 gp, 74 goals

Defensiveman
492 gp, 41 goals

Total: 290 goals


Projecting 290 goals sounds crazy, but last year the team scored 267, so it's only about a 8% increase. Offensively the additions of Sykora and Letang plus factoring the potential for players like Christensen, Armstrong and Talbot to score more than last season and the idea seems more reasonable. Crosby and Malkin combined for 69 goals, and I'd think they'll improve on that.

Obviously not every player listed is going to play every game, but the team will field a roster for 82 games, so that's where the 492 figures come from.

It's not so much the individual player that I'm counting on, so much as whoever's in the lineup that night. Surely guys like Tim Brent, Jon Filewich and Ryan Stone will get their chance to make an impact and there's bound to be trades or deadline pickups on the way.

But as it stands now, I'm sticking by 290 goals (3.54 a game) this season. On paper. In September.