Malkin saves the season

Not going to lie, we had a huge hate post written up basically writing off the rest of the season barring some sort of drastic action taken by Ray Shero. Down 3-0 against Tampa Bay at home, we almost turned the game off. But then Evgeni Malkin put the team on his back at stole the Pens a point.

Sidney Crosby's knee isn't right. Take that to the bank. He's pushing through, but one can tell he isn't himself. So someone had to step it up. Which leads us to the title of the post; did Malkin just save the season? Down 3-0 going in the third. Against a weaker team in the standings, at home. Facing a goalie in his opening NHL start that was in a groove. Down three points (at the time) to the playoff chase--with the rest of the teams in the chase having more games in hand. If the Penguins rolled over and died, better believe that's about the picture wrap on the season.

So how do you measure MVP? Caps fans are already forming their arguments--and with good reason--Alex Ovechkin has more goals than anyone in the league and is setting the tone for what will probably be record wise one of the best teams in the first 82.

But....

2 goals, 1 assist (all in the 3rd period), 7 shots on goal (with two more missing the net and two getting blocked), a takeaway, a blocked shot and 4 hits...One that knocked a key defenseman out of the game. That, folks, is an MVP performance. Sure the Penguins are still outside of the playoff bubble and it's hard to win the trophy if you don't lead your team to the second season that over half of the league makes, even if Malkin retains his 17.9% point advantage over AO.

But....

Remember this night. Remember this performance. If, as this editor thinks, it breaks the floodgates for the rest of the team and the Penguins rally from here, then you will know.

Other thoughts:

• This was one of the most physical games of the season. Former Pens Ryan Malone and Gary Roberts each recorded seven hits a piece. Tampa had 42 total on the night. Even Steven Stamkos got into the act with a heavy hit.
• And before you get too far down on Stamkos, allow us to present you with these two season statlines....55 games, 3 goals, 4 assists; 82 games, 13 goals 15 assists...Those are the 18 year old NHL seasons of Joe Thornton and Vincent Lecavalier respectively. Sure, they were both in the pre-lockout days where the game was a little tighter--but the point is just because phenoms like Crosby, Ovechkin and Malkin hit the ground running they're still very much the execptions, and not the rule.
• Malone's goal in front of the net showed the grit and skill that Pittsburgh has frankly been missing without him. Can't fault a guy for getting paid, but boy if he were still in the black and gold it's hard to imagine the Penguins struggling as much as they have been. Apologies to Marian Hossa (who's not having a shabby season himself) but Malone's presence on and off the ice might be the biggest loss the Pens suffered from all the ballyhooed player movement.
• 0-6 to start the powerplay for the Penguins on the night, including a 5 on 3 for a full two minutes. Ryan Whitney isn't making solid decisions back there. It's not all on him of course, but Sergei Gonchar (46 PP points last season, only one off of Alex Kovalev's 47 for the entire league) will help so much.
• After being outshot 14-5 in the first period, the Pens--outshot nightly seemingly every night--turned it around and won the last three frames a combined 27-10. The frantic comeback helped, the sense of urgency was finally there.

And take a deep breath, the Pens live to fight another day.

TST: Eastern Conference Predictions 2008-09

Not to ring our own bell or anything but ding ding, last year we predicted six out of the eight correct playoff teams--and the only teams that we missed on (Washington [who got in on the last day] and Philly) we both said they would just miss. So with the history of excellence in mind, here's our crystal ball for this year.

Atlantic Division
1. Pittsburgh Penguins
2. New York Rangers
3. Philadelphia Flyers
4. New Jersey Devils
5. New York Islanders

--Hockey's most competitive division (and the Islanders play here too!), the Atlantic could again send four teams to postseason play again, if Martin Brodeur can do more than his end of the bargain again for the Devils. Realistically any of the top three teams could win the division, we like the Penguins (duh) but the new look Rangers can put up a stong scoring forward lineup (Gomez, Drury, Naslund, Zherdev, Callahan). But what happens if Henrik Lundqvist or Martin "French Toast" Biron go down for any length of time like Marc-Andre Fleury did this past season? Either of those teams would skid right out of the playoff picture.

Northeast Division
1. Montreal Canadiens
2. Boston Bruins
3. Ottawa Senators
4. Bufalo Sabres
5. Toronto Maple Leafs

--Pretty much everyone likes the well-rounded Montreal team at #1 here, their only real question is if phenom goalie Carey Price can put his horrible playoffs behind him or if that confidence issue will expand in hockey's toughest market. Ottawa is ever dangerous with top line talent like Heatley, Spezza and Alfredsson but a quick look at their blueline shows they're going in the wrong direction. That's why we pencil Boston for a relative surprise here (Lucic-Savard-Ryder could be an awesome line). Buffalo could have a bounce back but we just don't see enough offensive muscle to make a difference.

Southeast Division
1. Washington Capitals
2. Tampa Bay Lightning
3. Carolina Hurricances
4. Florida Panthers
5. Atlanta Thrashers

--This division seems to be Washington's to lose, with Carolina having the Buffalo-syndrome of being good but seemingly not "that good", Florida and Atlanta are left still basically irrelevant on and off the ice. So who does that leave, oh yeah Tampa Bay! The crazy owners, the dozens of forwards, the handful of ex-Pittsburgh players. We think the Tampa experiment will do better than most think....They have a group of 9 forwards (Lecavalier, St. Louis, Prospal, Malone, Stamkos, Vrbata, Recchi, Roberts, Jokinen) that are arguably deeper than Washington's fine group. Whether they stay that way is different story. Tampa may be said to lack defense, but on paper at least they are no worse than anyone else (Carle, Meszaros, Ranger, Smaby, O'Brien, Niskala and watch for the giant Vladimir Mihalik). The real question is whether their goaltending which is unproven (Mike Smith) or too old (Olie Kolzig) can take them to the promised land.

Playoff teams
Division Winners: Pittsburgh, Montreal, Washington
Others: NY Rangers, Philadelphia, Boston, Ottawa, Tampa Bay

Close but heartbreakingly short
New Jersey Devils

Atleast Competitive
Buffalo, Carolina

It's gonna be a long winter
NY Islanders, Toronto, Atlanta, Florida

The first game of the season...Already

After three camp scrimmages in three days, the Tampa Bay Lightning come to Pittsburgh Saturday night for the NHL's opening pre-season game. And according to the official websites the rosters for both teams couldn't be more mis-matched.

Take a look for yourself at who will be wearing black and gold--our estimation of lines based off how they set up camp:

Dupuis-Crosby-Satan
Staal-Malkin-Sykora
Pesonen-Taffe-Godard
Stone-Beech-Thomas

Orpik/Gonchar
Eaton/Goligoski
Sydor/Lovejoy

Goalies will be MAF and Dany Sabs

That's damn near an opening night lineup. The Pens held their presumptive "24, 25, 26" third line of Matt Cooke (#24), Maxime Talbot (#25) and Ruslan Fedotenko (#26) as well as Kris Letang and Hal Gill but other than that it's a rock and roll lineup.

Interesting that someone Faceoff Factor raved about, Ben Lovejoy--who wrote an awesome blog last season-- gets a spot in the lineup. It'll be of interest to see if he performs as well as Jesse said he did in scrimmages. Lovejoy doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of making the NHL roster out of camp, of course, but considering how injuries can strike a blueline, it's good to get a look-see.

OK, now to see how unbalanced it is, let's look at the squad that Tampa is going to send up north (in alphabetical order). And if you're looking for the good former Penguins (Malone, Roberts, Hall even Recchi) or the stars like Vinny or Marty, you will be disappointed...

Forwards: Evgeny Artyukhin, Brandon Bochenski, Ryan Craig, Jussi Jokinen, David Koci, Zenon Konopka, Chris Lawrence, Michel Ouellet, Wyatt Smith, Radek Smolenak, Steven Stamkos, Jason Ward

Defensemen: Jamie Heward, Andrew Hutchinson, Vladimir Mihalik, Janne Niskala, Andy Rogers, Matt Smby

Goalies: Karri Ramo and Mike Smith

Now apologies to Jokinen and maybe Ward but obviously other than #1 pick Steven Stamkos is Tampa sending a forward that would even make Pittsburgh's opening night lineup? We don't think so. And who are they going to play Stamkos with, the "Trash Man" and Bochenski? Jokinen and Craig? Yuck.

Obviously the point of pre-season games is not the scoreboard at the end of the night (good thing for Tampa) but to get your guys in shape, in tune and prepared for the real thing. Obviously old pros like Lecavalier, Malone and St. Louis don't really need to play in all the exhibitions, and perhaps if this was a road game the Pens wouldn't be wheeling out all the star power. But, news flash, the games count for real in a mere two weeks. Considering there's an ocean to cross there isn't much time for preparation.

Who wants to bet on fights? For the Penguins we wouldn't be surprised if Ryan Stone, who's back is against the wall, comes out swinging. Eric Godard has a history of dropping gloves, he's got to be the odds on favorite to fight. For Tampa, David Koci usually has more balls than brains (not that there's anything wrong about that), Kenon Konopka is feisty and a guy like Ryan Craig might drop 'em too.

Official TST Prediction: Penguins 6, Tampa 2
Goal scorers for the good-guys: (Satan [2], Malkin, Staal, Goligoski, Thomas)

Why wouldn't the Lightning sign Mark Recchi?

The Tampa Bay Lightning continued to pile on veteran support on Monday, signing forward Mark Recchi to a one-year, $1.25 million contract that's worth $1.5 million with incentives.

Pittsburgh south indeed. Recchi, Ryan Malone, Gary Roberts, Adam Hall and don't forget Michel Ouellet (how could you)....The Lightning also had ex-Pens Andre Roy and Karl Stewart in their coffers last season, though both are now unrestricted free agents.

That got us to thinking of the breakout 2006-07 Penguins that all those men (except Hall) played for Pittsburgh....8 out of 31 skaters to appear in a Penguin jersey that season--the Tampa four plus Colby Armstrong and Erik Christensen (ATL), Josef Melichar (CAR) and Noah Welch (FLA) will start the season in the Southeast division.

Consider that only 10 skaters from that season--which ended for the Pens only fifteen months ago--are still with the Penguins. They are as you'd imagine, pretty much the core of the team: Crosby, Malkin, Gonchar, Whitney, Staal, Talbot, Scuderi, Orpik, Eaton and Letang.

Like roster turnover? The NHL is the place for you.

Pens keep Eaton, sign a fighter, lose two more UFAs

The Penguins signed Mark Eaton, two years $2 million (source: TSN). A great signing if Eaton can stay healthy. Eaton played well with Sergei Gonchar on the top pairing before his knee injury, so one has to wonder if the Pens intend to stick him back there with Gonchar and come to terms with Brooks Orpik going somewhere else. The Pens now have seven defenseman on the roster and that doesn't even count Alex Goligoski who tore through the AHL playoffs.

The Pens also signed Eric Godard. He's regarded as a pretty solid fighter, but his hockey skills leave to be desired. This probably means the end of Georges Laraque's stint as a Penguin. Godard doesn't have to play much, even if dressed he won't take the ice much which could mean more opportunities for Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin to double shift and increase their own ice time.

Tampa Bay, in their continuing effort to sign every free agent under the sun (especially if they're from Pittsburgh) signed Adam Hall, three years $1.8 million. Can't really blame Hall, as I'm sure the Pens contract wasn't three years. But still Hall owes something to his former aGM Ray Shero for inviting him to training camp last year when it seemed his NHL career was over.

Also, it's somewhat sad to report the Conkblock has moved on, signing a one year deal with Detroit. We wish he could have gotten the shot to be a number 1 goalie somewhere (like Colorado) but in the end he's going to a great organization. Also Conklin should fit in well with Detroit with how he handles the puck and can hold a team in the game.

A lot of rumors flying around as to who's fielding offers from where. Stay tuned.

And no, we're not even going to touch this one with a stick.

Malone and Roberts are Lightning...And on front loaded contracts

Over the weekend the Penguins traded the negotiations rights for impending free agents Ryan Malone and Gary Roberts to the Tampa Bay Lightning. In return they were given a 4th round pick in 2009 that would become a 3rd rounder if Malone signed.


Well, according to TSN it's a 3rd rounder, as Tampa has signed Malone seven years, $31.5 million bones. That is silly money. Tampa is also said to be close to signing Mr. Roberts for about a one year $2 million deal.


Between Vinny Lecavalier, Marty St. Louis, phenom #1 pick Steve Stamkos, Malone, Roberts, coach Barry Melrose and a couple crazy new owners, Tampa is definitely a team to keep an eye on, if only because one can never quite be sure what wild and crazy stunt they might pull next.



An interesting aside...Malone's deal is front loaded, so he will reportedly be getting about $7 million a year in the first two years before the deal ratchets down to average out to the $4.5 million a season. Perhaps Tampa's willingness to do this for him was a reason why he signed before July 1, as he previously indicated he wouldn't do.


Other notable free agents to sign front loaded contracts include Daniel Briere, Scott Gomez and Ryan Smyth so this has been a fairly regular occurance in the new-CBA. Players obviously like doing this because who doesn't want a big payday as soon as possible. And if they weren't business majors, their agents probably teach them a little something about the time value of money.


For the teams there is also much value in front loading...The top unrestricted free agents tend to be older players and are usually given 5-7 year contracts. Sure their contributions for the first few years should be great, but as they age performance will obviously peak and decline during the life of the deal (particularly for power forwards like Smyth and Malone). By leaving little salary in the contract for the final few years, the players can be bought out fairly painlessly. See example 5 here for a great explanation.


Also the player could be attractive for a trade to a small market team that needs to meet the salary floor. For example, as he contract goes, a 37 year old Daniel Briere will "only" get paid $2 million for the 2014-15 season. But his cap hit is still going to be $6.5 million. By that point Briere probably won't be among the NHL's top point scorers, but for a small market team that needs to spend more money in salaries, his deal will still be $6.5 million against the cap, even though they have to pay him less than 1/3 of that for his play that year.


Front loading contracts isn't a loophole, per se, but clearly it's a crafty way for NHL general managers, players and agents to exploit the collective bargaining agreement for a little wiggle room to make it work best for them.

Our long national nightmare is over: Tampa game preview

Trips to Florida haven't ended well for the Penguins of late, going just 1-8-1 in the past ten games playing in the sunny confines of Tampa. A look at the new-look opponents.

• Tampa, as you might expect from a team mired at the bottom of the standings, are struggling of late. They've gone 1-5-1 in their past seven games.
• Further, in the three games since trading scoring forwards Brad Richards and Vaclav Prospal (and replacing them with Jussi Jokinen and Jeff Halpern) the Lightning have scored just 6 goals. Over the past 11 Lightning games, Martin St. Louis has just 1 goal (and has 0 points in the last 6 contests) and Vincent Lecavalier has just 1 goal in his last 11 matches. Are the remaining "big guns" still a little stunned with all the trades and losing or something more close to sulking?
• Mike Smith, the centerpiece of the Richards trade, has started all 3 games and has a 3.32 GAA and a 88.2% save percentage. Also it's worth noting that Halpern, a grinder best remembered for his Mario Lemieux-pestering days, has 2 goals and 2 assists with TBL, so his output has seen a little bump with his new club.

And some notes from the good guys:

• The Penguins final record without Sidney Crosby: 11-6-4. Not bad considering that's a stretch that's a quarter of the season. Obligatory shoutouts to Messrs. Malkin, Conklin, Malone, Gonchar and Sykora.
• As we mentioned, Marc-Andre Fleury gets the nod in net tonight. Conklin has faded recently, and while it's still a little early to say the wheels are falling off Cinderella's carriage, it still is nice to know the Pens can turn back to Fleury (who's personaly on a 5 game winning streak).
• Maxime Talbot and Pascal Dupuis get the chance to play on Crosby's line tonight. A great chance for both of them to audition and prove they should be the 3rd guy with Crosby and Marian Hossa. With Talbot's energy, nose for the net and the improved production he's shown this year (20 points in 49 games compared with 24 points in 79 games last season), give him the edge. But it's probably anybody's game at this point.
• Keep an eye out for Jeff Taffe playing with Jordan Staal and TK on the 3rd line tonight. Taffe's quietly carved out a niche as a player who belongs in the NHL.
• Ryan Whitney's also back. We wouldn't be adverse to see Kris Letang sit for a night. Shootouts aside, it looks as if he's hit a little bit of a wall, not unexpected at this point in the season for a 21 year old defenseman in his first professional campaign. Letang's decision makings, zone coverage and even some of his passes have seemed a little off. He's had to deal with working with a new partner in Hal Gill, since Brooks Orpik's promotion to the top line.

Well, this sucks

Sidney Crosby hurt. Oh boy. What's initially been diagnosed as a dreaded "high ankle sprain" took Crosby out of the game and probably a lot longer.

Dagger

But before declaring all to be lost, let's try to focus on the good:

1)The Penguins have a center (Evgeni Malkin) to plug into the #1 spot on the depth chart who would probably be a #1 center on 25+ teams in the NHL.
2)When Marc-Andre Fleury went down to the very same injury, everyone and their brother pronounced the season to be lost. Out of the absolute shadow stepped in Ty Conklin who hadn't lost in regulation until tonight!


All this instant diagnosis of Crosby being out 4+ weeks seems a little premature. In our experience of seeing this injuries this year though (namely the Caps Alex Semin and the Pens Max Talbot) in both occasions the players thought they could heal faster than they really could, both came back too early (Semin did numerous times) and both paid the price of having the nagging injury take it's toll.

Crosby prides himself at being a professional and taking care of his body. He's not going to rush anything and knows what he can and can't play through. Plus the Pens medical staff has now dealt with three of these sprains (the aforementioned Talbot and Fleury) so they should be very familiar about rehabbing this.

When one goes down, someone else must take his place. No matter how important, Crosby is a cog in the machine. A very, very important part, to be sure, but the great thing about hockey is it's a team sport. The best players, and more often the best collection of players, often do not win it all. Rather, it's the best collection of talent that bonds together; picks up the slack and refuses to lose (and gets the requisite amount luck and bounces along the way) that usually carries off the Cup.

In that sense, losing your best player will test the whole club. For starters obviously Malkin is going to have to bring his A game as the new #1 center. But when Crosby was out last season for a few games with a groin injury Malkin was flat out sensational and took games over--almost as if he knew he was not only out of Sid's shadow but had to carry the mail for the team.

Secondary scoring is now a must. Players like Jordan Staal and Ryan Malone are now going to be in a bigger role and have to pick up the slack and capitalize on their opportunities. Both have been inconsistent offensively for stretches but with the big dog out of the lineup, their contributions are necessarily and neither need to be told that.

Further it's going to test the coaching staff. Memo to Michel Therrien: now is not the time to play the only elite winger sniper you have (Petr Sykora) with glorified grinders and role players like Jarrko Ruutu and Talbot. You have to consolidate your skill, and in a hurry.

Here's how we'd work the lines, as of now:

Malone-Malkin-Sykora
Christensen-Staal-Kennedy
Ruutu-Talbot-Armstrong
Stone-Hall-Laraque

Second line is a huge question mark, given how EC hasn't played well on the wing and Staal hasn't produced, but we think TK's energy gives it a boost. Even though they're young; they're responsible enough defensively and hustle enough to negate that....Malkin and Sykora worked well together in Russia during the lockout season and need to play together. Period. Malone's done a good job taking the body and opening up space and we think will thrive knowing that he's now a leader of this team and has to come through.

Stay tuned for the next prognosis on Crosby. God willing it will turn out better than it looked tonight.

If not, just time to make some lemonade (and vodka) out of these lemons.

As for the game....we hear Andre Roy had a part in all the goals, scoring one and assisting two more. And the Penguins didn't score. And Brooks Orpik was -3. And Ty Conklin lost. And Crosby got hurt? If you'll excuse us we're either drunk or in the midst of a nightmare.

The Flu Claims Two

He's baaaack! (Note: Not Gary, the mustachioed gentleman)

According to PSI, Tyler Kennedy and Erik Christensen are out of the lineup tonight (even though Crusher told the PG he expected to be ready to roll). That means Ryan Stone will be making his NHL debut and also the return from injury by Max Talbot.

I’m not too excited by this turn of events: TK and EC have been two of the Penguins better forwards during this 7 game winning streak and have been playing arguably the best hockey of their short NHL careers in the past 20 games or so.

Stone will be on the 4th line and plays a pretty well-rounded game, he’s physical and energetic and on paper a nice replacement for Kennedy, even if TK had a bigger role than Stone will initially get.

Talbot, on the other hand, has me concerned. He returned in early December after missing 4 or 5 games from a high ankle sprain and ended up re-aggravating it that knocked him out a month. We here at the Sweater Ted don’t have to look far to see how the exact same injury has hobbled Caps sniper Alex Semin and greatly decreased his game by trying to play through (and then coming back to quickly) an ankle sprain.

But Talbot has been eased back into practice over the past 2 weeks or so and must be in good shape if the Pens didn’t want to bring up another well performing farmhand like Tim Brent or Jonathan Filewich.
We’ll see how things click in the Pens quest to beat Tampa Bay for the first time since 2003 and, more importantly, go for their 8th win in a row.

Hat Tricks, Hockey goalies, Beatings and Winning: Penguins Hockey

I openly wondered/question if the Penguins would be good enough to go on a serious winning streak that could catapult them into the playoffs. Perhaps it should be no surprise, after a 5th win in a row; that a team featuring the talents like Crosby and Malkin could fire off a bunch of wins in a row. But taking into account the injury bug that has put several key players on the bench long-term, well that’s an accomplishment.

Enter perhaps the most unassuming and unlikely stars in a while, Ty Conklin. The Conk is now a blemish less 6-0-0 with a 2.30 GAA and a 92.8% save percentage. On top of those numbers, he’s surrendered just 8 goals in the past 5 games. Pretty much every game in the last five he’s been the guy holding the often out-shot Penguins in the game and last night was no different when he stopped 33 of 35 shots his was.

The tide of the game was turned by Jarrko Ruutu’s pounding of pesty Darcy Tucker (more later). As predicted here, between the unusual circumstances physically and emotionally of the Winter Classic game two days earlier, the Penguins were a in a little bit of a rut last night. The score was tied 1-1 at the time but they were being badly outshot and in danger of letting a winnable game slip away. Enter Ruutu to provide a spark.

3 goals in the span of :48 seconds is unbelievable. That absolutely buried the Make Beliefs and ended any doubt of which team would get the win that night.

Brooks Orpik, we feel, is sliding back into favor with the coaching staff. He played over 20 minutes (first time in a while) and was a +3 on the night.

How about Evgeni Malkin’s first career hat-trick? Even more impressive, it only took 4 shots on goal to make it happen. That’s the kind of efficiency the Penguins demonstrated all night, scoring 6 goals on but 24 shots on target.

Rough night for Nik Antropov in the faceoff circle, he went 4 out of 16 draws. Very nice!

Looking Ahead:
``The Penguins have but 3 divisional games in the month of January, a good thing considering they have the worst divisional record in hockey.

``By contrast they have still 7 more games with SouthLeastern division opponents, who have combined for 197 points in 206 games (under 50% of possible points) and only have 1 team with more points in the standings than games played (which is Carolina, who’s not on the Pens schedule this month)

``For comparison the Atlantic Division has a combined 222 points in just 196 games and every team has more points than games played.

In conclusion, there are a lot of winnable games ahead, but let’s remember the trouble Pittsburgh has had winning against the Florida teams, particularly Tampa Bay, who’s always, in recent memory, seemed to have the Pens number.