Not to ring our own bell or anything but ding ding, last year we predicted six out of the eight correct playoff teams--and the only teams that we missed on (Washington [who got in on the last day] and Philly) we both said they would just miss. So with the history of excellence in mind, here's our crystal ball for this year.
Atlantic Division
1. Pittsburgh Penguins
2. New York Rangers
3. Philadelphia Flyers
4. New Jersey Devils
5. New York Islanders
--Hockey's most competitive division (and the Islanders play here too!), the Atlantic could again send four teams to postseason play again, if Martin Brodeur can do more than his end of the bargain again for the Devils. Realistically any of the top three teams could win the division, we like the Penguins (duh) but the new look Rangers can put up a stong scoring forward lineup (Gomez, Drury, Naslund, Zherdev, Callahan). But what happens if Henrik Lundqvist or Martin "French Toast" Biron go down for any length of time like Marc-Andre Fleury did this past season? Either of those teams would skid right out of the playoff picture.
Northeast Division
1. Montreal Canadiens
2. Boston Bruins
3. Ottawa Senators
4. Bufalo Sabres
5. Toronto Maple Leafs
--Pretty much everyone likes the well-rounded Montreal team at #1 here, their only real question is if phenom goalie Carey Price can put his horrible playoffs behind him or if that confidence issue will expand in hockey's toughest market. Ottawa is ever dangerous with top line talent like Heatley, Spezza and Alfredsson but a quick look at their blueline shows they're going in the wrong direction. That's why we pencil Boston for a relative surprise here (Lucic-Savard-Ryder could be an awesome line). Buffalo could have a bounce back but we just don't see enough offensive muscle to make a difference.
Southeast Division
1. Washington Capitals
2. Tampa Bay Lightning
3. Carolina Hurricances
4. Florida Panthers
5. Atlanta Thrashers
--This division seems to be Washington's to lose, with Carolina having the Buffalo-syndrome of being good but seemingly not "that good", Florida and Atlanta are left still basically irrelevant on and off the ice. So who does that leave, oh yeah Tampa Bay! The crazy owners, the dozens of forwards, the handful of ex-Pittsburgh players. We think the Tampa experiment will do better than most think....They have a group of 9 forwards (Lecavalier, St. Louis, Prospal, Malone, Stamkos, Vrbata, Recchi, Roberts, Jokinen) that are arguably deeper than Washington's fine group. Whether they stay that way is different story. Tampa may be said to lack defense, but on paper at least they are no worse than anyone else (Carle, Meszaros, Ranger, Smaby, O'Brien, Niskala and watch for the giant Vladimir Mihalik). The real question is whether their goaltending which is unproven (Mike Smith) or too old (Olie Kolzig) can take them to the promised land.
Playoff teams
Division Winners: Pittsburgh, Montreal, Washington
Others: NY Rangers, Philadelphia, Boston, Ottawa, Tampa Bay
Close but heartbreakingly short
New Jersey Devils
Atleast Competitive
Buffalo, Carolina
It's gonna be a long winter
NY Islanders, Toronto, Atlanta, Florida
Showing posts with label bold predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bold predictions. Show all posts
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Friday, May 23, 2008
Series Preview
We don't know about you esteemed blog reader, but we're about sick of reading previews around the web. By this point we all know Detroit has the experience, puck possession and a guy named Nick Lidstrom. The Penguins will counter with size, youth and skill.
Who knows what will happen. Neither team has ever been behind in a series, which won't be the case after Game 1. This, combined with the seemingly even nature of the two clubs, lead most to believe that it will be at least a six game.
In the end, as always, the Cup will come down to execution and desire. We'll see who wants it more, who puts themselves in a position to succeed and then actually makes it happen.
Anyways, you know where we're going with this...
Who knows what will happen. Neither team has ever been behind in a series, which won't be the case after Game 1. This, combined with the seemingly even nature of the two clubs, lead most to believe that it will be at least a six game.
In the end, as always, the Cup will come down to execution and desire. We'll see who wants it more, who puts themselves in a position to succeed and then actually makes it happen.
Anyways, you know where we're going with this...
Pens in 5
That's right, 5.
Friday, May 9, 2008
Eastern Conference Finals: Prediction
We've spent some time this week previewing the matchups and key players involved for the Eastern Conference Finals. By now, after five days of waiting, it's finally time to drop the puck again and kick off another series.
But we guess we've never given the prediction....Even though the intrepid reader can probably guess what logo is coming next.
Regardless....
Series key: The Flyers staying out of the penalty box and Martin Biron continuing to find ways to win
The Flyers aren't dumb, they know the more chances they give the Pens with a man-advantage the less their chances of winning become. Knowing this is one thing; actually showing restraint and discipline is another. To paraphrase the famous Mike Tyson quote: "Everyone has a plan until Jarkko Ruutu is yapping in your face". We see a guy like Steve Downie taking something like that devastating Ryan Hollweg boarding penalty from last week that tips the balance of a game.
Further than that, it's all about Biron. At times he didn't look that great against Washington (but still got the series win) but he certainly has inspired confidence with stealing a couple games from Montreal. Coming into this round, no goalie in the playoffs has seen more rubber and stopped more picks than Biron. If he can regain that groove he was in against the Habs and make stellar saves on the Pens that could be the boost needed to tip the balance in the series.
In the end though, we think the Penguins are too skilled, too fast for the Philly defensemen and that if Marc-Andre Fleury can out duel Henrik Lundqvist, he ought to be able to match Biron. We, of course, are taking the Pens. In lieu of Kimmo Timonen's injury, we don't think this series will be as long as many think...Almost all previews we've seen, no matter who they pick, seem to say it will be a 6 or 7 game series, we disagree, guys like Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are just too dynamic to be contained by the old and slow like Derian Hatcher and Jaroslav Modry.
Official TST Prediction: Pens in 5!
But we guess we've never given the prediction....Even though the intrepid reader can probably guess what logo is coming next.
Regardless....
Series key: The Flyers staying out of the penalty box and Martin Biron continuing to find ways to win
The Flyers aren't dumb, they know the more chances they give the Pens with a man-advantage the less their chances of winning become. Knowing this is one thing; actually showing restraint and discipline is another. To paraphrase the famous Mike Tyson quote: "Everyone has a plan until Jarkko Ruutu is yapping in your face". We see a guy like Steve Downie taking something like that devastating Ryan Hollweg boarding penalty from last week that tips the balance of a game.
Further than that, it's all about Biron. At times he didn't look that great against Washington (but still got the series win) but he certainly has inspired confidence with stealing a couple games from Montreal. Coming into this round, no goalie in the playoffs has seen more rubber and stopped more picks than Biron. If he can regain that groove he was in against the Habs and make stellar saves on the Pens that could be the boost needed to tip the balance in the series.
In the end though, we think the Penguins are too skilled, too fast for the Philly defensemen and that if Marc-Andre Fleury can out duel Henrik Lundqvist, he ought to be able to match Biron. We, of course, are taking the Pens. In lieu of Kimmo Timonen's injury, we don't think this series will be as long as many think...Almost all previews we've seen, no matter who they pick, seem to say it will be a 6 or 7 game series, we disagree, guys like Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are just too dynamic to be contained by the old and slow like Derian Hatcher and Jaroslav Modry.
Official TST Prediction: Pens in 5!
Thursday, May 8, 2008
Prediction: Western Conference Finals
Last round we were a respectable 3-1 (bringing our overall playoff predictions to 9-3), so here's a quick and dirty look at the Western Conference Finals....
Detroit Red Wings (1) v. Dallas Stars (5)
There's no doubt Dallas belongs here; beating the defending champion Anaheim Ducks and then dispatching the very well-rounded San Jose Sharks team. Detroit's road (as a #1 seed) was signigificantly easier. They survived a little hiccup from Dominik Hasek during the Nashville series and then completely over-matched and out-classed an injury riddled Colorado team.
But, in a workman like fashion, Detroit has shown their dominance. Johan Franzen leads the league with an amazing 11 goals (in 10 games)...Hardly anyone is even mentioning the Red Wings usual top guns of Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg and they both have 13 points. Ever the machine, Nicklas Lidstrom is chewing up 25+ minutes a night and is reliable and steady as always. Chris Osgood is 6-0 with a 1.57 GAA and a 93.7 save percentage. They are humming along perfectly.
But Dallas knows how to play against such a buzzsaw. They've been under-dogs in their first two series and haven't backed down. The Stars have great depth at center (Mike Ribeiro, Brad Richards, Mike Modano). Their best defensemen (Sergei Zubov) is back from injury and back into form. Marty Turco has exorcised any and all playoff demons that may have haunted him. An unsung hero, Stephane Robidas, is playing excellent and quietly coming into his own.
Also, don't sleep on a key for Dallas: fast starts. They've started the first two series on the road and won both of those games both times. We don't have the stat-book handy, but anytime a team goes 0-2 at home the odds of them winning that seven game series is not very good.
Two great teams, but only one will emerge. To us, it's looked like a Detroit/Pittsburgh show down has been inevitable for a while now. But something just doesn't feel right about this matchup. Detroit has no shortage of hard-working, honest players, but in Dallas' two earlier series it's just looked like they've wanted it more. Wanted to get to loose pucks, wanted to initiate contact, wanted to block shots, wanted to make saves. We think that same desire will hold and be enough to oust the more talented team.
Series key: What style prevails; Detroit's puck possession or Dallas' uptempo game
Dallas in 6
Detroit Red Wings (1) v. Dallas Stars (5)
There's no doubt Dallas belongs here; beating the defending champion Anaheim Ducks and then dispatching the very well-rounded San Jose Sharks team. Detroit's road (as a #1 seed) was signigificantly easier. They survived a little hiccup from Dominik Hasek during the Nashville series and then completely over-matched and out-classed an injury riddled Colorado team.
But, in a workman like fashion, Detroit has shown their dominance. Johan Franzen leads the league with an amazing 11 goals (in 10 games)...Hardly anyone is even mentioning the Red Wings usual top guns of Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg and they both have 13 points. Ever the machine, Nicklas Lidstrom is chewing up 25+ minutes a night and is reliable and steady as always. Chris Osgood is 6-0 with a 1.57 GAA and a 93.7 save percentage. They are humming along perfectly.
But Dallas knows how to play against such a buzzsaw. They've been under-dogs in their first two series and haven't backed down. The Stars have great depth at center (Mike Ribeiro, Brad Richards, Mike Modano). Their best defensemen (Sergei Zubov) is back from injury and back into form. Marty Turco has exorcised any and all playoff demons that may have haunted him. An unsung hero, Stephane Robidas, is playing excellent and quietly coming into his own.
Also, don't sleep on a key for Dallas: fast starts. They've started the first two series on the road and won both of those games both times. We don't have the stat-book handy, but anytime a team goes 0-2 at home the odds of them winning that seven game series is not very good.
Two great teams, but only one will emerge. To us, it's looked like a Detroit/Pittsburgh show down has been inevitable for a while now. But something just doesn't feel right about this matchup. Detroit has no shortage of hard-working, honest players, but in Dallas' two earlier series it's just looked like they've wanted it more. Wanted to get to loose pucks, wanted to initiate contact, wanted to block shots, wanted to make saves. We think that same desire will hold and be enough to oust the more talented team.
Series key: What style prevails; Detroit's puck possession or Dallas' uptempo game
Dallas in 6
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Predicting the other series
For first round predictions we were a pretty respectable 6-2, including a perfect 4-0 record in the Eastern Conference, which are the games naturally that we follow more closely. We'll be the first to admit our insight doesn't translate that well outside of the Eastern Time Zone.
In the post below is our Penguins series preview and prediction (which you can probably predict) so let's get to the other matchups.
Eastern Conference:
Montreal Canadiens v. Philadelphia Flyers
After sneaking by the Caps in a thrilling yet physical series, one has to wonder how much Philly has left in the tank. Montreal also got taken to the limit by Boston, but we just get the feeling that the Habs are getting the wind into their sails while it took all of the Flyers' effort to make it to this point.
Series key: Montreal's speed up front versus the Philadelphia backline
Prediction: Montreal in 5
Western Conference
Detroit Red Wings v. Colorado Avalanche
Oh to the days when this would have guaranteed blood. The rivalry may have simmered lately as most the players involved in it's hey-day are gone, but we get the feeling that this could boil back into the fiercest series this round. Colorado, when healthy, presents more challenges than the usual #6 seed. But Detroit just seems like a machine, taking care of business in a workman-like fashion. Nothing fancy, nothing exciting, just results at the end of the day.
Series key: Colorado (read: Peter Forsberg's) health and which Jose Theodore shows up
Prediction: Detroit in 6
San Jose Sharks v. Dallas Stars
Of all the series we could see going either way, it's probably this one. The convential pick (as the always are) would be the Sharks. On paper they have all the talent and all the pieces a team needs. But games are not played on paper. A scrappy Calgary team took SJ to the limit. The way Dallas played in the first round, they would have beaten San Jose. Strangely, sentimentally we find ourselves drawn to seeing this last hurrah of Jeremy Roenick go on a little longer.
Series key: The Sharks staying consistent and solving Marty Turco
Prediction: Dallas in 7
In the post below is our Penguins series preview and prediction (which you can probably predict) so let's get to the other matchups.
Eastern Conference:
Montreal Canadiens v. Philadelphia Flyers
After sneaking by the Caps in a thrilling yet physical series, one has to wonder how much Philly has left in the tank. Montreal also got taken to the limit by Boston, but we just get the feeling that the Habs are getting the wind into their sails while it took all of the Flyers' effort to make it to this point.
Series key: Montreal's speed up front versus the Philadelphia backline
Prediction: Montreal in 5
Western Conference
Detroit Red Wings v. Colorado Avalanche
Oh to the days when this would have guaranteed blood. The rivalry may have simmered lately as most the players involved in it's hey-day are gone, but we get the feeling that this could boil back into the fiercest series this round. Colorado, when healthy, presents more challenges than the usual #6 seed. But Detroit just seems like a machine, taking care of business in a workman-like fashion. Nothing fancy, nothing exciting, just results at the end of the day.
Series key: Colorado (read: Peter Forsberg's) health and which Jose Theodore shows up
Prediction: Detroit in 6
San Jose Sharks v. Dallas Stars
Of all the series we could see going either way, it's probably this one. The convential pick (as the always are) would be the Sharks. On paper they have all the talent and all the pieces a team needs. But games are not played on paper. A scrappy Calgary team took SJ to the limit. The way Dallas played in the first round, they would have beaten San Jose. Strangely, sentimentally we find ourselves drawn to seeing this last hurrah of Jeremy Roenick go on a little longer.
Series key: The Sharks staying consistent and solving Marty Turco
Prediction: Dallas in 7
Series Preview: Pittsburgh v. New York
Here's a quick look at the Penguins next playoff opponent, one they know quite well, the New York Rangers.
Playoff leading scorer: Jaromir Jagr (5 games, 2 goals, 6 assists, +3)
Opponent they made look the worst: It's tempting to say Martin Brodeur, if only because the biggest asshole in the NHL Sean Avery got under his skin so effectively and threw him off his game. But we're going to go with Paul Martin, who got burnt for a -8 +/- rating in the five games.
Interesting stat: The Rangers scored 18 goals in five games (3.80 a game) against Brodeur and the defensive-minded Devils. 11 different Rangers tallied at least one goal, while five Blueshirts had multi-goal series.
Between the circles: Noted playoff warrior and Mr. Clutch Chris Drury only won 39.4% of his draws. Brandon Dubinsky and Scott Gomez took most the other faceoffs and were at or above 50%.
What the media will tell you the key matchup is: Marc-Andre Fleury vs. Henrik Lundqvist
What the real key matchup is: How New York's young defensemen--particularly Marc Staal (21) and Dan Girardi (23) matchup against the depth of scoring forwards that Pittsburgh will try to matchup against them.
Girardi and Staal were credited with 25 and 17 hits in those first five games, pretty impressive numbers. It remains to be seen if they were inflated numbers or legit hits.
TST Prediction: Pens in 6
The Rangers will be a stiff challenge. They've got a lot of great playoff players (Drury, Shanahan and, yes, Jagr) to go with some talented youth (Dubinsky, Ryan Callahan, etc) up front. Defensively you'd think they wouldn't be as good as they are but it's a team commitment (and a great goalie) that makes them solid.
Still, the Penguins can counter that with speed and skill that we believe just over-matches the Blueshirts. The likes of Crosby, Malkin, Hossa, Sykora, etc. will eventual convert on the numerous chances they generate. The defense will quietly do their job and Fleury will continue to play excellent hockey. We give New York two games because we respect the talent of a guy like Jagr or Drury who can steal a close game by themselves with a late goal.
But in the end, the Penguins are marching on.
Playoff leading scorer: Jaromir Jagr (5 games, 2 goals, 6 assists, +3)
Opponent they made look the worst: It's tempting to say Martin Brodeur, if only because the biggest asshole in the NHL Sean Avery got under his skin so effectively and threw him off his game. But we're going to go with Paul Martin, who got burnt for a -8 +/- rating in the five games.
Interesting stat: The Rangers scored 18 goals in five games (3.80 a game) against Brodeur and the defensive-minded Devils. 11 different Rangers tallied at least one goal, while five Blueshirts had multi-goal series.
Between the circles: Noted playoff warrior and Mr. Clutch Chris Drury only won 39.4% of his draws. Brandon Dubinsky and Scott Gomez took most the other faceoffs and were at or above 50%.
What the media will tell you the key matchup is: Marc-Andre Fleury vs. Henrik Lundqvist
What the real key matchup is: How New York's young defensemen--particularly Marc Staal (21) and Dan Girardi (23) matchup against the depth of scoring forwards that Pittsburgh will try to matchup against them.
Girardi and Staal were credited with 25 and 17 hits in those first five games, pretty impressive numbers. It remains to be seen if they were inflated numbers or legit hits.
TST Prediction: Pens in 6
The Rangers will be a stiff challenge. They've got a lot of great playoff players (Drury, Shanahan and, yes, Jagr) to go with some talented youth (Dubinsky, Ryan Callahan, etc) up front. Defensively you'd think they wouldn't be as good as they are but it's a team commitment (and a great goalie) that makes them solid.
Still, the Penguins can counter that with speed and skill that we believe just over-matches the Blueshirts. The likes of Crosby, Malkin, Hossa, Sykora, etc. will eventual convert on the numerous chances they generate. The defense will quietly do their job and Fleury will continue to play excellent hockey. We give New York two games because we respect the talent of a guy like Jagr or Drury who can steal a close game by themselves with a late goal.
But in the end, the Penguins are marching on.
Monday, April 7, 2008
Playoff Predictions
Since our early prognostications were pretty good, let's try our hand at the second season.
EASTERN CONFERENCE:
(1)Montreal Canadiens v. (8)Boston Bruins
--Les Habs dominated Boston in their season series. Montreal, somewhat quietly, scored the most goals in the NHL this season. We look for Boston to try to clamp down and win 2-1 games, with Montreal trying to be more aggressive and take advantage of their awesome powerplay.
Key injuries: MTL: Saku Koivu (broken foot); BOS: Marc Savard (broken bone in back)
EASTERN CONFERENCE:
(1)Montreal Canadiens v. (8)Boston Bruins
--Les Habs dominated Boston in their season series. Montreal, somewhat quietly, scored the most goals in the NHL this season. We look for Boston to try to clamp down and win 2-1 games, with Montreal trying to be more aggressive and take advantage of their awesome powerplay.
Key injuries: MTL: Saku Koivu (broken foot); BOS: Marc Savard (broken bone in back)
TST Official Prediction: Canadiens in 5!
(2)Pittsburgh Penguins v. (7)Ottawa Senators
--Re-match. Ottawa seems to be on the ropes and very unstable and to make matters worse, their captain and two of their best checking forwards (Mike Fisher and Chris Kelly) are unavailable.
Key injuries: PITT: None; OTT: Daniel Alfredsson (knee), Fisher (knee), Kelly (broken leg)
TST Official Prediction: Penguins in 5!
(3)Washington Capitals v. (6)Philadelphia Flyers
--Washington is the cinderella story of the NHL, coming from worst to first. They have been playing great hockey but they have played 7 straight non-playoff teams. Washington's core of players (Ovechkin, Semin, Backstrom, Green) have not played in the NHL playoffs. We think they're in for a rude awakening; much like Pittsburgh got last season. Philly is aggressive but will need to stay out of the box and get better goaltending then they've gotten to have a chance.
Key injuries: WSH: Michael Nylander (shoulder), Chris Clark (groin), Shaone Morrison (likely shoulder); PHI: Daniel Briere (knee), Simon Gagne (concussion)
TST Official Prediction: Flyers in 6!
(The day you see a Cryers logo on this blog will be the day this editor is spinning in a grave)
(4)New Jersey Devils v. (5)New York Rangers
--This might be the most hard fought, "hand to hand combat" type series of them all. Both clubs are scrappy, wear-you-out type teams built for long, grinding series. We give the skill forward and overall defensemen edge to NYR but you'd have to give the goalie advantage to NJD. Lundqvist is a great goalie but Brodeur is one of the best of all times.
Key injuries: NJD: none, ; NYR: Jaromir Jagr (disinterest) 
TST Official Prediction: Rangers in 7!
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(1)Detroit Red Wings v. (8)Nashville Predators
--Detroit's stigma of a great regular season (they won the President's Trophy again this year) followed by an untimely playoff exit will continue this year. That's what happens when you rely on a goalie so old and plagued by injuries. But it won't happen in the first round.
Key injuries: DET: Tomas Kopecky (knee), Brad Stuart (finger); NSH: Martin Gelinas (knee), Steve Sullivan (back)
TST Official Prediction: Wings bust out the brooms!
(2)San Jose Sharks v. (7)Calgary Flames
--The Flames are a tough playoff team; they make a name for themselves grabbing a low seed and then buckling down defensively and seeing if Iginla can pull them past a favorite. But we're not going against San Jose; they may have been a letdown in year's past, but the addition of Brian Campbell makes them a really complete and scary team. They'll need better play/production out of Patrick Marleau but that might be a "next round" problem.
Key injuries: CGY: Craig Conroy (upper-body); SJS: none
TST Official Prediction: Sharks in 6!
(3)Minnesota Wild v. (6)Colorado Avalanche
--This seems to be one of the prime upset picks already, as Colorado has more recognizable names (Sakic, Forsberg, et al.) and Minnesota plays a much more non-descript (but effective) brand of hockey. The NHL playoffs are about the best team, and we like Minnesota in this one.
Key injuries: MINN: Kurtis Foster (broken leg), COL: Forsberg (everything), Marek Svatos (knee)
TST Official Prediction: Wild in 6!
(4)Anaheim Ducks v. (5)Dallas Stars
--Doesn't it seem like Dallas draws a terrible matchup every year? This is no different. The Thug Ducks are going to run wild on the Stars; they're more physical, skilled and better in every category. Shame for Dallas, they're probably the best team that we've got packing it in this early.
Key injuries: ANA: Corey Perry (cut leg); DAL: Sergei Zubov (foot)
TST Official Prediction: Ducks in 5!
---------------------
Holy crap, did we really just pick every higher side in the West to hold serve? Yes, yes we did. And really, what would be better than a potential Detroit/Anaheim 2nd round matchup? Not too much.
Friday, March 14, 2008
Eastern Conference Race
JP has a super-sweet (and time-wasting) application. Bascially you get to play the prognosticator and forecast the remaining games that an Eastern Conference team plays in. Then it compiles the points into the standings and let’s you know who makes the playoffs, who doesn’t and seedings. As you can tell, it is pretty in-depth.
Here’s our official TST forecast for how things will look when the dust clears in early April, with final points in parenthesis:
1. Montreal (103)
2. New Jersey (101)
3. Carolina (92)
4. Pittsburgh (100)
5. Ottawa (98)
6. New York Rangers (97)
7. Boston (96)
8. Philadelphia (95)
-------
9. Buffalo (89)
10. Washington (88)
11. Florida (85)
12. Toronto (83)
13. NYI (78)
14. Atlanta (77)
15. Tampa Bay (76)
Initial thoughts:
``Wow looks a lot like the standings do today, in terms of space between teams and where they're actually positioned.
``It would suck to lose to Jersey by a point. But the matchup against a likely #7 team like Boston or Philly is not much better than a first round matchup against a likely #5 seed like Ottawa or NYR. The first round will be stiff no matter what. In the longterm though, home ice would be nice for as long as possible.
``We had Washington losing a head-to-head game against Carolina. If they win that one game and the other chips fall as they did in our guss, they could sneak into the 3 seed on a tiebreaker.
We'll check back in on this bold prediction sure to go wrong when the season is over.
Here’s our official TST forecast for how things will look when the dust clears in early April, with final points in parenthesis:
1. Montreal (103)
2. New Jersey (101)
3. Carolina (92)
4. Pittsburgh (100)
5. Ottawa (98)
6. New York Rangers (97)
7. Boston (96)
8. Philadelphia (95)
-------
9. Buffalo (89)
10. Washington (88)
11. Florida (85)
12. Toronto (83)
13. NYI (78)
14. Atlanta (77)
15. Tampa Bay (76)
Initial thoughts:
``Wow looks a lot like the standings do today, in terms of space between teams and where they're actually positioned.
``It would suck to lose to Jersey by a point. But the matchup against a likely #7 team like Boston or Philly is not much better than a first round matchup against a likely #5 seed like Ottawa or NYR. The first round will be stiff no matter what. In the longterm though, home ice would be nice for as long as possible.
``We had Washington losing a head-to-head game against Carolina. If they win that one game and the other chips fall as they did in our guss, they could sneak into the 3 seed on a tiebreaker.
We'll check back in on this bold prediction sure to go wrong when the season is over.
Monday, January 28, 2008
2010 can't get here fast enough
...If you're Canadian, that is. We're not, but this is too good to pass up.
TSN is having their viewers chose their Team Canada squad even though it's, you know, over 2 full years away.
Anyways I submitted mine (posing as a native of Prince Edward Island) and here's my hypothetical lines...
Heatley-Crosby-Iginla
Lecavalier-Spezza-Nash
Getzlaf-Thornton-Perry
E. Staal-Fisher-M. Richards
Pronger/Niedermayer
Bouwmeester/Phaneuf
Campbell/Green
Luongo, Brodeur
Reserves: Morrow, Seabrook, Ward
Given that lineup, we can actually see why they're so excited for this team to be unveiled. The amount of talent that they have (especially in the range of 22-27 years old at the time, a lot of whom we snubbed from our rosters). Scary good.
Monday, December 31, 2007
A Long (Successful) December
The only Eastern Conference team to gain more points than the Penguins (18) in December was the conference breakaway team Ottawa Senators (20).
Not bad considering Dany Sabourin and Ty Conklin have been the netminders since December 6th and key players like Max Talbot, Sergei Gonchar, Ryan Malone and Gary Roberts have been injured or missed games during this stretch.
Now it's time for the highest profile regular season game. If you don't know what this is, you're living in a cave.
Bring it. I'm stoked. I'm sure all the players on both teams are going to be laying it all on the line, and even though the conditions are going to be unpredictable, I have a feeling something special is going to take place in this most special of games. Think 87 or 71. I am.
Happy New Years folks. See you tomorrow afternoon with a comprehensive recap.
Monday, October 1, 2007
Kevin Allen is the smartest man in America!
Which is to say, I agree with him!
Kevin Allen, of the USA Today gave 10 reasons why the Penguins will raise the Cup this season....I liked it. But this summed it up.
Atta boy, Kevin!
The Penguins will be a very popular and trendy pre-season pick. The burden of expectations on the team, and especially Captain Crosby will be tremendous. But it's nothing short of what he's been going through since Gretzky himself appointed Crosby "the next one" years before he'd even play an NHL game!
Bring it, NHL.
Kevin Allen, of the USA Today gave 10 reasons why the Penguins will raise the Cup this season....I liked it. But this summed it up.
1. The Crosby factor: Crosby is ready to lead the Penguins. At 20, Sidney he is already the NHL's best pure player. He sees the ice like Wayne Gretzky, carries the flag like Mark Messier and drives to the net like Gordie Howe. He's mature beyond his years, and he's driven to win a championship. Not many are ready to captain a team at 20, but Crosby appears to be. As probably the league's most important arrival since Mario Lemieux, Crosby has faced heavy pressure, exceeded expectations, and done so with humility and style. He seems to always make the right play, and say the right words after the game.
Atta boy, Kevin!
The Penguins will be a very popular and trendy pre-season pick. The burden of expectations on the team, and especially Captain Crosby will be tremendous. But it's nothing short of what he's been going through since Gretzky himself appointed Crosby "the next one" years before he'd even play an NHL game!
Bring it, NHL.
Thursday, September 27, 2007
2007-08 Eastern Conference Forecast
Thanks to the whacky idea to play two games in England, ready or not here comes the NHL season this Saturday. I guess I better make a forecast like everyone else, just so we can re-visit this in about 6 months and look at how much of a dope I was....Here goes:
Atlantic Division
1. Pittsburgh Penguins
2. New York Rangers
3. New Jersey Devils
4. Philadelphia Flyers
5. New York Islanders
-Every year, much like the Atlanta Braves of the ‘90s, people predict New Jersey’s downfall, as they attempt to replace proven talent with stop-gap measures (Zubrus, Vishnevski this year) and/or young players (Parise, Martin, etc). And every year, they keep on ticking…I got Pittsburgh as #1, a trendy pick, but one I honestly believe, given their lineup and how strongly they played against the division last season. Just like days of old, the Rangers made the sexiest free agent signings, and Philly seemingly turned over about their whole roster. I like 3-4 playoff teams from this division. Maybe this is the year that Brodeur shows his age and NJ falls off, but I’m not bold enough to predict it, they’ve proven me wrong too many times.
Northeast Division
1. Ottawa Senators
2. Montreal Canadiens
3. Buffalo Sabres
4. Toronto Maple Leafs
5. Boston Bruins
--Tough one to call. Boston, IMO, is the best team I have in the basement league wide, but they’re still their. It’s easy to leave Buffalo for dead after they bungled the Briere and Drury signings, so I did. I like what Montreal could possibly do. Ottawa is the consensus #1 and the reigning Eastern Conference heavyweight, but even they had a very slow start in this brutal division last season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that happen to Toronto, and them not having the firepower to dig out of the hole.
Southeast Division
1. Tampa Bay Lightning
2. Carolina Hurricanes
3. Washington Capitals
4. Florida Panthers
5. Atlanta Thrashers
--I’m leaving Atlanta for dead here, they’ve got basically no one up the middle and their defense isn’t that formidable. It’s a coin toss between two recent unlikely SC champs at the top, I’ll give the edge to Vinny and Marty over Eric and Rod. Washington will delight the locals in grandeurs of a playoff run, but fall short this year, probably with some obscure injury that Caps fans heavy blogosphere will decry all off-season.
Playoff teams (no particular order):
Pittsburgh, Ottawa, Tampa Bay (division winners)
New York Rangers, New Jersey, Carolina, Montreal, Buffalo
Just missing it (this year's Colorado, Montreal or Toronto):
Philadelphia, Washington
Somewhat competitive but not enough:
Toronto, Boston, Florida
It's gonna be a long, cold winter:
New York Islanders, Atlanta
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
2007-08 Western Conference Forecast
Thanks to the whacky idea to play two games in England, ready or not here comes the NHL season this Saturday. I guess I better make a forecast like everyone else, just so we can re-visit this in about 6 months and look at how much of a dope I was....Here goes:
Central Division
1. Detroit Red Wings
2. St. Louis Blues
3. Nashville Predators
4. Chicago Blackhawks
5. Columbus BJs
--Detroit's the king of this division, Nashville took a huge step back. I like St. Louis as my surprise team...Adding Tkachuk, Kariya (cha-cha-cha) up front and #1 pick Erik Johnson to the blueline should be good enough to have them challenging for the last playoff seed. I like Chicago's core of talent, but I think they're going to need another year to get those young forwards up to speed.
Northwest Division
1. Vancouver Canucks
2. Colorado Avalanche
3. Calgary Flames
4. Minnesota Wild
5. Edmonton Oilers
--The top 4 in this division should all make the playoffs, their order is hard to predict, because each team has it's weakness: Luongo is the man for Vancouver but do they have the firepower? Colorado looks revamped by adding Ryan Smyth and Scott Hannan, but what's their goalie situation? Calgary has Kipper and a tough D, but what's that kook Iron Mike going to bring to the table? Minnesota has the raw talent, and defensive system, but keeping Gaborik off the shelf has has it's challenges. Edmonton will stink, but that's not news.
Pacific Division
1. San Jose Sharks
2. Anaheim Ducks
3. Dallas Stars
4. Los Angeles Kings
5. Phoenix Coyotes
--The Stanley Cup hangover is in effect for the Ducks, who may or may not have their captain Scott Niedermayer (great leadership and decision making their, Cap). Every year I pick San Jose to breakout out in a big way, and usually they disappoint. I like Dallas, but they just don't seem to have "it". LA could be a surprise team, but how will all their new faces mesh? Again, the only thing for sure is it's going to be a long season for #99, if he sticks with that club all year I'll be impressed.
Playoff teams (no particular order):
Detroit, Vancouver, San Jose (division winners)
Anaheim, Colorado, Calgary, Minnesota, Dallas
Just missing it (this year's Colorado, Montreal or Toronto):
St. Louis, LA
Somewhat competitive but not enough:
Chicago and Nashville
It's gonna be a long, cold winter:
Columbus, Phoenix, Edmonton
Central Division
1. Detroit Red Wings
2. St. Louis Blues
3. Nashville Predators
4. Chicago Blackhawks
5. Columbus BJs
--Detroit's the king of this division, Nashville took a huge step back. I like St. Louis as my surprise team...Adding Tkachuk, Kariya (cha-cha-cha) up front and #1 pick Erik Johnson to the blueline should be good enough to have them challenging for the last playoff seed. I like Chicago's core of talent, but I think they're going to need another year to get those young forwards up to speed.
Northwest Division
1. Vancouver Canucks
2. Colorado Avalanche
3. Calgary Flames
4. Minnesota Wild
5. Edmonton Oilers
--The top 4 in this division should all make the playoffs, their order is hard to predict, because each team has it's weakness: Luongo is the man for Vancouver but do they have the firepower? Colorado looks revamped by adding Ryan Smyth and Scott Hannan, but what's their goalie situation? Calgary has Kipper and a tough D, but what's that kook Iron Mike going to bring to the table? Minnesota has the raw talent, and defensive system, but keeping Gaborik off the shelf has has it's challenges. Edmonton will stink, but that's not news.
Pacific Division
1. San Jose Sharks
2. Anaheim Ducks
3. Dallas Stars
4. Los Angeles Kings
5. Phoenix Coyotes
--The Stanley Cup hangover is in effect for the Ducks, who may or may not have their captain Scott Niedermayer (great leadership and decision making their, Cap). Every year I pick San Jose to breakout out in a big way, and usually they disappoint. I like Dallas, but they just don't seem to have "it". LA could be a surprise team, but how will all their new faces mesh? Again, the only thing for sure is it's going to be a long season for #99, if he sticks with that club all year I'll be impressed.
Playoff teams (no particular order):
Detroit, Vancouver, San Jose (division winners)
Anaheim, Colorado, Calgary, Minnesota, Dallas
Just missing it (this year's Colorado, Montreal or Toronto):
St. Louis, LA
Somewhat competitive but not enough:
Chicago and Nashville
It's gonna be a long, cold winter:
Columbus, Phoenix, Edmonton
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
Get the Skissors out, it's time to make some cuts
The Pens head back to West Point for another round of boot camp on Sunday. They expect to carry close to, if not the final roster. As of now though, we're looking at 24 forwards, 13 defenseman and 3 goalies...Here's my educated more than guess about the roster:
Forwards(13): Armstrong, Brent, Christensen, Crosby, Laraque, Malkin, Malone, Recchi, Roberts, Ruutu, Staal, Sykora, Talbot
Defensemen (7): Eaton, Gonchar, Letang, Orpik, Scuderi, Sydor, Whitney
Goaltenders (2): Fleury, Sabourin
If I'm wrong, here's where:
13th forward: I took Brent, he's a right handed center (unique to the organization), and has some NHL experience. I know the Pens like young guys like Ryan Stone, Jon Filewich and especially Tyler Kennedy but there's only so much room at the inn. Unless there's a trade (Ryan Malone I'm looking at you) then I don't see how. Adam Hall's inspired tryout play falls just short.
Defensemen: The organization loves Letang, but I almost wish they'd give him 10 games in Wilkes-Barre to wet his feet in the professional pool before diving right in to the NHL. Mike Weaver who I consider a poor man's Mark Eaton, just solid enough to get the job done, but not skilled enough to fly above the radar.
Forwards(13): Armstrong, Brent, Christensen, Crosby, Laraque, Malkin, Malone, Recchi, Roberts, Ruutu, Staal, Sykora, Talbot
Defensemen (7): Eaton, Gonchar, Letang, Orpik, Scuderi, Sydor, Whitney
Goaltenders (2): Fleury, Sabourin
If I'm wrong, here's where:
13th forward: I took Brent, he's a right handed center (unique to the organization), and has some NHL experience. I know the Pens like young guys like Ryan Stone, Jon Filewich and especially Tyler Kennedy but there's only so much room at the inn. Unless there's a trade (Ryan Malone I'm looking at you) then I don't see how. Adam Hall's inspired tryout play falls just short.
Defensemen: The organization loves Letang, but I almost wish they'd give him 10 games in Wilkes-Barre to wet his feet in the professional pool before diving right in to the NHL. Mike Weaver who I consider a poor man's Mark Eaton, just solid enough to get the job done, but not skilled enough to fly above the radar.
Monday, September 17, 2007
3 Headed Monster
Michel Therrien has been using Jordan Staal as the 3rd line center throughout camp and says he plans on keeping him there. Staal has been playing with Ryan Malone and Colby Armstrong on his wings.
The significance? Those three represent 3/4 of the Penguins regular penalty killing forwards from last season (Maxime Talbot, of course being the other).
The Penguins don't have a great line like R. Niedermayer/Pahlsson/Moen to matchup and shutdown the opposition's top guns. Really, in recent memory there hasn't even been a defensive minded dominant forward in a mold of Keith Primeau, Rod Brind'Amour or Mike Fisher. Certainly these players are rare, but a line of Malone-Staal-Armstrong might be a starting point.
What could this mean for the forwards? Most had Jordan Staal pencilled in as a top 6 winger. Now, based on pure skill there's still Mark Recchi, Petr Sykora and Erik Christensen. Gary Roberts is not a 4th liner, but his body doesn't seem to hold up for 82 games on a top line anymore. Enter stage left, Angelo Esposito?
A lot will depend on how he can do during pre-season, but if Espo plays well, it wouldn't shock me if the Pens tried him out a little with Crosby or Malkin. This isn't a team afraid to let young talent develop in the NHL, and so far the plan has worked pretty well, hasn't it?
Conventional lines (aka close to what they really look like):
Recchi-Crosby-Sykora
Roberts-Malkin-Christensen
Malone-Staal-Armstrong
Ruutu-Talbot-Laraque
So crazy it just might work idea:
Esposito-Crosby-Sykora
Christensen-Malkin-Recchi
Roberts-Staal-Armstrong
Ruutu-Talbot-Malone
The significance? Those three represent 3/4 of the Penguins regular penalty killing forwards from last season (Maxime Talbot, of course being the other).
The Penguins don't have a great line like R. Niedermayer/Pahlsson/Moen to matchup and shutdown the opposition's top guns. Really, in recent memory there hasn't even been a defensive minded dominant forward in a mold of Keith Primeau, Rod Brind'Amour or Mike Fisher. Certainly these players are rare, but a line of Malone-Staal-Armstrong might be a starting point.
What could this mean for the forwards? Most had Jordan Staal pencilled in as a top 6 winger. Now, based on pure skill there's still Mark Recchi, Petr Sykora and Erik Christensen. Gary Roberts is not a 4th liner, but his body doesn't seem to hold up for 82 games on a top line anymore. Enter stage left, Angelo Esposito?
A lot will depend on how he can do during pre-season, but if Espo plays well, it wouldn't shock me if the Pens tried him out a little with Crosby or Malkin. This isn't a team afraid to let young talent develop in the NHL, and so far the plan has worked pretty well, hasn't it?
Conventional lines (aka close to what they really look like):
Recchi-Crosby-Sykora
Roberts-Malkin-Christensen
Malone-Staal-Armstrong
Ruutu-Talbot-Laraque
So crazy it just might work idea:
Esposito-Crosby-Sykora
Christensen-Malkin-Recchi
Roberts-Staal-Armstrong
Ruutu-Talbot-Malone
Tuesday, September 4, 2007
When you talk beasts, you talk James Harrison
James Harrison, about to ruin someone's life This isn't Steelersblog, but with the season upcoming I couldn't resist. To write a blog about the next big thing in Steelers linebackers Mr. James Harrison.
I didn't first notice James Harrison when he body slammed a drunk Cleveland fan that ran onto the field (although incredibly cool). I noticed that #92 hustled and usually made almost every tackle on special teams, and if he got blocked or held their was usually a big return. To that point Harrison has been named special teams co-captain this year.
When the writing on the wall last season became apparent that Joey Porter would be released, I knew. I knew Harrison would fill in and everything would be ok. And it will.
Some of my favorite things about James Harrison:
- He trusts no one. . Not his teammates. Not even his own mother.
- "Harrison goes by several interesting nicknames in the Steelers locker room, including Silverback, which was bestowed on him by fellow linebacker Joey Porter. The reference is to the powerful Silverback gorilla, a dominating male who protects his troops."
- Coaches assign being his roommate in training camp as punishment, because all he wants to do is wrestle
- He's predicting an incredible 12 sacks this season, and doesn't care what you think about it
- As a kid in a fight, he used a brick as a weapon
- He had scholarships from The Ohio State and Nebraska, but it got pulled because in high school he took a BB gun and started shooting it at white kids. When Ohio State thinks you're crazy and too much of a risk, you are batshit insane.
It's hard to imagine the Steelers could replace Joey Porter with someone more colorful (read: crazy) and possibly just as good, but they have. Harrison's going to have to prove himself, he's going to be a lot shorter and smaller than left tackles, but he's so explosive, so strong and so mean, he's going to do it.
Monday, September 3, 2007
TY v. LY --Production
Last year's production:
Projected Top 6 (Crosby, Malkin, Staal, Recchi, Sykora, Christensen):
463 games played, 163 goals
Projected Bottom 6 (Malone, Roberts, Talbot, Armstrong, Ruutu, Laraque):
442 gp, 73 goals
Defensive contribution (Gonchar, Whitney, Letang, Sydor):
34 goals in 244 total games played
***While the top 6 obviously gets more icetime and the precious powerplay time, the bottom 6 forwards chipped in quite a few goals last season. Many 'Big' goals were scored by players like Talbot and Armstrong, either to win a game, or to force overtime. One of the lower 6 guys, on average, would score every game (well, .99 goals per combined average games). That is great secondary scoring support to take the pressure of guys like Crosby and Malkin. This will need to be replicated in 07-08.
***Offensively Brooks Orpik and Mark Eaton bring nothing to the table, so we omit them completely. If they pop in the odd goal, all the better. Whitney and Gonchar feasted on the powerplay, and figure to do so again. Kris Letang surely will improve on his 2 goals 0 assist cup of coffee from 06-07. These guys are dangerous to jump into the play but also to convert passes from Crosby and Malkin on the powerplay. Last year it was a average of .55 goals a game, combining all four players efforts.
***That the defensemen and lower line forwards scored, on average, 1.48 goals per game is huge for the skill forwards. That's a lot of support and balance that opens up even more room for the skill players.
I'd expect the top 6 will combine for more than 163 this year; Crosby improves every year, Malkin isn't a rookie and I expect him to beat 33 goals, Christensen netted 18 in just 61 games and Sykora scored but 23 goals on a woeful Edmonton team. Recchi is slowing down with age, but even he 'only' scored 24 goals last year. Whether or not Jordan Staal can replicate his 29 goal rookie showing might be the biggest question mark, but even if he doesn't, I believe the first four names (especially Malkin and EC) will pick up that slack.
THIS YEAR: PROJECTIONS
Top 6
492 games played, 175 goals
Bottom 6
492 gp, 74 goals
Defensiveman
492 gp, 41 goals
Total: 290 goals
Projecting 290 goals sounds crazy, but last year the team scored 267, so it's only about a 8% increase. Offensively the additions of Sykora and Letang plus factoring the potential for players like Christensen, Armstrong and Talbot to score more than last season and the idea seems more reasonable. Crosby and Malkin combined for 69 goals, and I'd think they'll improve on that.
Obviously not every player listed is going to play every game, but the team will field a roster for 82 games, so that's where the 492 figures come from.
It's not so much the individual player that I'm counting on, so much as whoever's in the lineup that night. Surely guys like Tim Brent, Jon Filewich and Ryan Stone will get their chance to make an impact and there's bound to be trades or deadline pickups on the way.
But as it stands now, I'm sticking by 290 goals (3.54 a game) this season. On paper. In September.
Projected Top 6 (Crosby, Malkin, Staal, Recchi, Sykora, Christensen):
463 games played, 163 goals
Projected Bottom 6 (Malone, Roberts, Talbot, Armstrong, Ruutu, Laraque):
442 gp, 73 goals
Defensive contribution (Gonchar, Whitney, Letang, Sydor):
34 goals in 244 total games played
***While the top 6 obviously gets more icetime and the precious powerplay time, the bottom 6 forwards chipped in quite a few goals last season. Many 'Big' goals were scored by players like Talbot and Armstrong, either to win a game, or to force overtime. One of the lower 6 guys, on average, would score every game (well, .99 goals per combined average games). That is great secondary scoring support to take the pressure of guys like Crosby and Malkin. This will need to be replicated in 07-08.
***Offensively Brooks Orpik and Mark Eaton bring nothing to the table, so we omit them completely. If they pop in the odd goal, all the better. Whitney and Gonchar feasted on the powerplay, and figure to do so again. Kris Letang surely will improve on his 2 goals 0 assist cup of coffee from 06-07. These guys are dangerous to jump into the play but also to convert passes from Crosby and Malkin on the powerplay. Last year it was a average of .55 goals a game, combining all four players efforts.
***That the defensemen and lower line forwards scored, on average, 1.48 goals per game is huge for the skill forwards. That's a lot of support and balance that opens up even more room for the skill players.
I'd expect the top 6 will combine for more than 163 this year; Crosby improves every year, Malkin isn't a rookie and I expect him to beat 33 goals, Christensen netted 18 in just 61 games and Sykora scored but 23 goals on a woeful Edmonton team. Recchi is slowing down with age, but even he 'only' scored 24 goals last year. Whether or not Jordan Staal can replicate his 29 goal rookie showing might be the biggest question mark, but even if he doesn't, I believe the first four names (especially Malkin and EC) will pick up that slack.
THIS YEAR: PROJECTIONS
Top 6
492 games played, 175 goals
Bottom 6
492 gp, 74 goals
Defensiveman
492 gp, 41 goals
Total: 290 goals
Projecting 290 goals sounds crazy, but last year the team scored 267, so it's only about a 8% increase. Offensively the additions of Sykora and Letang plus factoring the potential for players like Christensen, Armstrong and Talbot to score more than last season and the idea seems more reasonable. Crosby and Malkin combined for 69 goals, and I'd think they'll improve on that.
Obviously not every player listed is going to play every game, but the team will field a roster for 82 games, so that's where the 492 figures come from.
It's not so much the individual player that I'm counting on, so much as whoever's in the lineup that night. Surely guys like Tim Brent, Jon Filewich and Ryan Stone will get their chance to make an impact and there's bound to be trades or deadline pickups on the way.
But as it stands now, I'm sticking by 290 goals (3.54 a game) this season. On paper. In September.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
