TST: Eastern Conference Predictions 2008-09

Not to ring our own bell or anything but ding ding, last year we predicted six out of the eight correct playoff teams--and the only teams that we missed on (Washington [who got in on the last day] and Philly) we both said they would just miss. So with the history of excellence in mind, here's our crystal ball for this year.

Atlantic Division
1. Pittsburgh Penguins
2. New York Rangers
3. Philadelphia Flyers
4. New Jersey Devils
5. New York Islanders

--Hockey's most competitive division (and the Islanders play here too!), the Atlantic could again send four teams to postseason play again, if Martin Brodeur can do more than his end of the bargain again for the Devils. Realistically any of the top three teams could win the division, we like the Penguins (duh) but the new look Rangers can put up a stong scoring forward lineup (Gomez, Drury, Naslund, Zherdev, Callahan). But what happens if Henrik Lundqvist or Martin "French Toast" Biron go down for any length of time like Marc-Andre Fleury did this past season? Either of those teams would skid right out of the playoff picture.

Northeast Division
1. Montreal Canadiens
2. Boston Bruins
3. Ottawa Senators
4. Bufalo Sabres
5. Toronto Maple Leafs

--Pretty much everyone likes the well-rounded Montreal team at #1 here, their only real question is if phenom goalie Carey Price can put his horrible playoffs behind him or if that confidence issue will expand in hockey's toughest market. Ottawa is ever dangerous with top line talent like Heatley, Spezza and Alfredsson but a quick look at their blueline shows they're going in the wrong direction. That's why we pencil Boston for a relative surprise here (Lucic-Savard-Ryder could be an awesome line). Buffalo could have a bounce back but we just don't see enough offensive muscle to make a difference.

Southeast Division
1. Washington Capitals
2. Tampa Bay Lightning
3. Carolina Hurricances
4. Florida Panthers
5. Atlanta Thrashers

--This division seems to be Washington's to lose, with Carolina having the Buffalo-syndrome of being good but seemingly not "that good", Florida and Atlanta are left still basically irrelevant on and off the ice. So who does that leave, oh yeah Tampa Bay! The crazy owners, the dozens of forwards, the handful of ex-Pittsburgh players. We think the Tampa experiment will do better than most think....They have a group of 9 forwards (Lecavalier, St. Louis, Prospal, Malone, Stamkos, Vrbata, Recchi, Roberts, Jokinen) that are arguably deeper than Washington's fine group. Whether they stay that way is different story. Tampa may be said to lack defense, but on paper at least they are no worse than anyone else (Carle, Meszaros, Ranger, Smaby, O'Brien, Niskala and watch for the giant Vladimir Mihalik). The real question is whether their goaltending which is unproven (Mike Smith) or too old (Olie Kolzig) can take them to the promised land.

Playoff teams
Division Winners: Pittsburgh, Montreal, Washington
Others: NY Rangers, Philadelphia, Boston, Ottawa, Tampa Bay

Close but heartbreakingly short
New Jersey Devils

Atleast Competitive
Buffalo, Carolina

It's gonna be a long winter
NY Islanders, Toronto, Atlanta, Florida

Playin Along with Paul

We like Paul Kukla, he is a great blogger and does good work. This is from his NHL.com piece, which he usually runs similiar questions this time of year. Paul's predictions are in parenthesis.

How many players do you think will reach 50 goals? Bonus points if you name them. (5)
--We say 4....Ovechkin, Kovalchuk, Heatley and as a somewhat surprise: Vinny Lecavalier

Name a player on a new team that will lead their team in goals scored. (Alex Tanguay)
--Olli Jokinen in Phoenix

Jean-Sebastien Giguere will lead the league in shutouts. (Your prediction?)
--Marty Turco

The Detroit Red Wings will win the Presidents’ Trophy. (Anyone care to go with another team?)
--We'd bet Red Wings as well, but if given another guess we'd make it the usual princes of the regular season, San Jose Sharks

The Chicago Blackhawks will make it to the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. (Name a team that did not make the playoffs last year that will win at least the first round of the playoffs this season.)
--We would say no one will....But to be nice and play along we'll say the Edmonton Oilers have the best chance to go from not being in the playoffs this past year to winning a round this coming year.

Twenty-eight players had at least 30 goals last season. This season I say 40 players will light the lamp 30 times. (How many players will score 30 or more goals?)
--35 since hopefully the revised goalie pads will let a few more squirt through....Plus there's always the short-lived, idealist hope in our hearts that penalties will be called the same in October as they are in March and in the 1st period as they are in over-time.

Only two players had a +/- of 40 or more last year (Pavel Datsyuk +41 and Nicklas Lidstrom +40). I see two players going at least +50. (Do you agree?)
--No, too much parody in the league and good defensive systems to get a +50. If anyone could do it it'd be Datysuk, Lidstrom or the treacherous Marian Hossa though.

Henrik Zetterberg and Sidney Crosby led the League in playoff points (27) last year. (Who leads the point standings for the upcoming playoff season? Yes it is a difficult choice, but if you get it correct, you know your hockey!)
--We'll hope against hope it's Crosby (and not tied with anyone this year)

These teams from the Eastern Conference missed the playoffs last season: New York Islanders, Buffalo Sabres, Toronto Maple Leafs, Carolina Hurricanes, Florida Panthers, Atlanta Thrashers and Tampa Bay Lightning. I see the Carolina Hurricanes having the best chance to go deep into the playoffs this year. (What one team do you choose?)
--We would say Carolina is most likely to make it back to the playoffs. And while there's a 85% chance that Tampa Bay is going to fail miserably, they were the only team that acted boldly and has the personnel to win a round or two. So if the question is: which non-playoff EC team has the best chance to go the furthest, we'd say Tampa. But if it was name the sure bet non-playoff EC team to make it back then we'd go Carolina.

What NHL player not named Ovechkin or Crosby would you pay to see? (What player(s) besides Alexander Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby brings you out of your seat?)
--Evgeni Malkin is the cheap answer (even if it's true)...But the players we're really excited to see this season for a first time live are Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane.

Your team needs to stop this shootout attempt to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs. (What goalie do you want in the net to make this stop?)
--Marc-Andre Fleury, duh....Or do we get to chose from any goalie in the league? If then, probably NYR's Henrik Lundqvist.

Many of you know I am a fan of the Detroit Red Wings and my concern is goaltending for the upcoming season. Can Chris Osgood and Ty Conklin and/or Jimmy Howard provide the goaltending a team needs to win on a consistent basis? (What concern do you have regarding your team?)
--The short layoff from Game 6 of the SC Finals to starting the season in Sweden and if all the guys (especially Crosby and Malkin) have been able to rest their injuries sufficiently and train adequately for another grueling 82 game grind of a season.

Not to be political, but what U.S. presidential candidate would be a better hockey fan? (John McCain or Barack Obama and why?)
--We don't want to bring politics in this forum, but for the sake of being light-hearted: John McCain since his running mate is more likely to nag him into watching it.

I won’t give you my prediction for the Stanley Cup winner this season, but are there any teams on the upswings that can hold the Stanley Cup this season? (What team wins the Stanley Cup?)
--Pittsburgh Penguins, obvs.

Knights of the Round-table

We will continue our 28 profiles in 28 days (hey, no one ever promised it would be one a day) but first here's everything you need to know about the Pens season-to-be....Tony over at The Confluence had a bunch of voices come together for a round table discussion and he honored us with a chance at participating. Here's the thing in it's entirety. Thanks again to Tony and the folks at the MVN for having us.

Just Four More Weeks

Time is a funny thing. In one respect, the summer has felt endless with the lasting memories of Red Wings celebrating on Penguin ice. We've been mired in the months of June, July and now August for seemingly ever.

But in four weeks, 28 days, the Penguins will take to the ice for pre-season practice. They'll actually meet up to take care of off-ice details (physicals, meetings, etc) in 27 days.

And in that regards, it's just around the corner. Before you know it there will seemingly be two losses in a row and calls for Michel Therrien's head. There will be the sensational Evgeni Malkin rushes, the precision of a heavy Sergei Gonchar shot and the sound of Pascal Dupuis and Maxime Talbot shredding the ice as they furiously chop their way around the rink.

Yep, if you listen closely you can almost hear the faint tune and see Marc-Andre Fleury's smile....Sidney's tuning up the band, it's almost time to bring the boys together.

Forward looking roster projections: Goaltender Edition

(picture used for the guy who loves this one the most, our buddy the Peerless)

Yep, throw Fleury in white and tells the story for that. But, exactly like last season like we said, if MAF gets hurt, heaven help us all. And it certainly did last year, but this time Conkblock is not waiting in the wings.

Forward looking roster projections: Defensemen edition

We're going to highlight this breakdown of next season's likely defensemen personnel with a spotlight on a player. And it's probably not who you first thought it was...

He's a player who tied for 18th among defensemen in scoring last season (beating out names like Redden, Bouwmeester and Rozsival). He scored as many goals (12) as Sergei Gonchar.

And Penguins fans generally do not like him for his unwillingness to use his 6’4 frame to make any kind of physical contact.

He's Ryan Whitney, of course, and how he bounces back from an up-and-mainly-down year last season will be one of many critical factors for the 2008-09 Penguins. We all know about the tough love Michel Therrien gave Whitney by taking his defensive position away and shifting him temporarily to become a winger.

Whitney responded from that point, playing generally a little better. His real shining moment came at the crest of the Penguins season: the triple OT Game 5 thriller. Gonchar went down with a back injury (and supposedly a head full of concussion) and the Pens had to lean on all their defensemen but none more so than Whitney. He played 50:46 of ice-time, over 7 minutes more than the next closest Pen. Playing that much is one thing, but Whitney played it well, doing everything expected of him to keep the Pens into the game.

Obviously the regular season games don’t quite match the intensity or meaning of a do or die Stanley Cup final game, but Whitney’s shown he can be very, very effective.

With the re-signing of Mark Eaton—who was used as Gonchar’s first partner before Eaton got slew footed by Marco Sturm and tore his knee up—we thought of how the defensive units would look. No doubt Brooks Orpik played the finest hockey of his career when paired with the Sarge, but Free Candy needs to be effective away from #55. Whitney and Orpik have been partners before and have been teammates, more or less, since the spring of 2004. Both figure to be around for the next 5 years at least so creating a long-term duo that could be the modern day equivalent of Stevens/Niedermayer seems very appealing.

That leaves the logjam of veteran Darryl Sydor, the USS Hal Gill, shot-blocking (but vanilla) Rob Scuderi and the promising Kris Letang to fill two spots in the lineup. As long as Letang is a regular, we wouldn’t mind any combination of partners for him. Gill seemed to play the best and adds more size, toughness and is a better passer than the other candidates, so we’ll plug him in.

Eaton/Gonchar
Orpik/Whitney
Gill/Letang

Spares: Scuderi, Sydor

2007-08 Eastern Conference Forecast

Thanks to the whacky idea to play two games in England, ready or not here comes the NHL season this Saturday. I guess I better make a forecast like everyone else, just so we can re-visit this in about 6 months and look at how much of a dope I was....Here goes:

Atlantic Division
1. Pittsburgh Penguins
2. New York Rangers
3. New Jersey Devils
4. Philadelphia Flyers
5. New York Islanders

­-Every year, much like the Atlanta Braves of the ‘90s, people predict New Jersey’s downfall, as they attempt to replace proven talent with stop-gap measures (Zubrus, Vishnevski this year) and/or young players (Parise, Martin, etc). And every year, they keep on ticking…I got Pittsburgh as #1, a trendy pick, but one I honestly believe, given their lineup and how strongly they played against the division last season. Just like days of old, the Rangers made the sexiest free agent signings, and Philly seemingly turned over about their whole roster. I like 3-4 playoff teams from this division. Maybe this is the year that Brodeur shows his age and NJ falls off, but I’m not bold enough to predict it, they’ve proven me wrong too many times.

Northeast Division
1. Ottawa Senators
2. Montreal Canadiens
3. Buffalo Sabres
4. Toronto Maple Leafs
5. Boston Bruins

--Tough one to call. Boston, IMO, is the best team I have in the basement league wide, but they’re still their. It’s easy to leave Buffalo for dead after they bungled the Briere and Drury signings, so I did. I like what Montreal could possibly do. Ottawa is the consensus #1 and the reigning Eastern Conference heavyweight, but even they had a very slow start in this brutal division last season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that happen to Toronto, and them not having the firepower to dig out of the hole.

Southeast Division
1. Tampa Bay Lightning
2. Carolina Hurricanes
3. Washington Capitals
4. Florida Panthers
5. Atlanta Thrashers

--I’m leaving Atlanta for dead here, they’ve got basically no one up the middle and their defense isn’t that formidable. It’s a coin toss between two recent unlikely SC champs at the top, I’ll give the edge to Vinny and Marty over Eric and Rod. Washington will delight the locals in grandeurs of a playoff run, but fall short this year, probably with some obscure injury that Caps fans heavy blogosphere will decry all off-season.

Playoff teams (no particular order):
Pittsburgh, Ottawa, Tampa Bay (division winners)
New York Rangers, New Jersey, Carolina, Montreal, Buffalo

Just missing it (this year's Colorado, Montreal or Toronto):
Philadelphia, Washington

Somewhat competitive but not enough:
Toronto, Boston, Florida


It's gonna be a long, cold winter:
New York Islanders, Atlanta

2007-08 Western Conference Forecast

Thanks to the whacky idea to play two games in England, ready or not here comes the NHL season this Saturday. I guess I better make a forecast like everyone else, just so we can re-visit this in about 6 months and look at how much of a dope I was....Here goes:

Central Division
1. Detroit Red Wings
2. St. Louis Blues
3. Nashville Predators
4. Chicago Blackhawks
5. Columbus BJs

--Detroit's the king of this division, Nashville took a huge step back. I like St. Louis as my surprise team...Adding Tkachuk, Kariya (cha-cha-cha) up front and #1 pick Erik Johnson to the blueline should be good enough to have them challenging for the last playoff seed. I like Chicago's core of talent, but I think they're going to need another year to get those young forwards up to speed.

Northwest Division
1. Vancouver Canucks
2. Colorado Avalanche
3. Calgary Flames
4. Minnesota Wild
5. Edmonton Oilers

--The top 4 in this division should all make the playoffs, their order is hard to predict, because each team has it's weakness: Luongo is the man for Vancouver but do they have the firepower? Colorado looks revamped by adding Ryan Smyth and Scott Hannan, but what's their goalie situation? Calgary has Kipper and a tough D, but what's that kook Iron Mike going to bring to the table? Minnesota has the raw talent, and defensive system, but keeping Gaborik off the shelf has has it's challenges. Edmonton will stink, but that's not news.

Pacific Division
1. San Jose Sharks
2. Anaheim Ducks
3. Dallas Stars
4. Los Angeles Kings
5. Phoenix Coyotes

--The Stanley Cup hangover is in effect for the Ducks, who may or may not have their captain Scott Niedermayer (great leadership and decision making their, Cap). Every year I pick San Jose to breakout out in a big way, and usually they disappoint. I like Dallas, but they just don't seem to have "it". LA could be a surprise team, but how will all their new faces mesh? Again, the only thing for sure is it's going to be a long season for #99, if he sticks with that club all year I'll be impressed.

Playoff teams (no particular order):
Detroit, Vancouver, San Jose (division winners)
Anaheim, Colorado, Calgary, Minnesota, Dallas

Just missing it (this year's Colorado, Montreal or Toronto):
St. Louis, LA

Somewhat competitive but not enough:
Chicago and Nashville

It's gonna be a long, cold winter:
Columbus, Phoenix, Edmonton

ATTEN HUT!

"I wish we had tickets to sell, so we could cold call potential customers like the Caps instead of this!"

For the second year in a row, the Pens are going to West Point for a few days, to get some military grade training which will marginally help their fitness and some more quality time to bond together as a team

"It's nice to kind of get away with just us and go through some team building things and get pushed to prepare for the season," Penguins captain Sidney Crosby said. "We had good chemistry last year, but going through the exercises at West Point was something that really brought us together."

Another great idea the Penguins are executing. Plus they're going to hold an open practice on the ice to give the cadets a special thank-you for the hospitality.

Answer Man

ESPN's Scott Burnside previewed the Eastern Conference and ax-ed several questions about the Penguins. Well, I'm nothing if not a sage, so I will hazard a more than educated guess at his queries:

Burning questions
• So, what does Crosby, the league's first teenage scoring champion, do in Year 3?

Uh, remarkably well. There's no reason not to think Captain Crosby won't be one of the top scorers in the league, as well as lead the Penguins through a solid regular season and be setup for a deep playoff run. Crosby's shown he's the best player in the game in just two years, at the age of 19.

• How does Malkin follow up his rookie-of-the-year campaign?

Malkin 'only' scored 33 goals last year. Given all the chances he had, that quite easily could have been 40-45 with a little luck. He's dangerous on every shift, and I have his linemates pencilled in as a 19 year old Jordan Staal and goal-scoring dyanmo Petr Sykora which sure beats a 18 year old Jordan Staal and the garbageman.

Torturella's just a little bit different than your lover Lord Therrien, dick

Plus Malkin had to deal with running away from Soviet Russia, leaving his homeland, his native tongue and coming to a totally foreign culture. That's huge. Plus the differences in NHL v. RSL (smaller rinks, more physical, much longer regular season) and it just shows what a great rookie season he really had.

But there's still room for improvement and I think Malkin will continue to develop and improve just fine.

• Will there be a step back for Staal, who showed a maturity well beyond his 18 years last season?

I think that's a fair question. Staal was unexpectedly spectacular, turning in a 29 goal season at just 18 years of age. But he only had 13 assists and admitted the speed of the game was something that he was still adjusting too.

Staal might score less goals this year (say 20-25 goals as a low-end estimate), but if he can muster 25 assists that will show he's picking up the intricacies of the game and become even more of a force.

Between Staal, Crosby and Malkin, if you were to tell me now that one would statistically regress, I would say Staal in a heartbeat.

• Now that veteran backup goalie Thibault has shuffled off to Buffalo, is there enough support in the form of Sabourin or Conklin behind Marc-Andre Fleury?

Fleury won 40 games last year and appeared in 67 games. The Penguins would like to see Fleury improve a little with his overall consistency and focus, but he's showing that he can start 65 games a year. Around the NHL, you'll see some tandem goaltending (Ottawa, Anaheim, Minnesota last year) but mainly, if you have a guy good enough to do so, it's just one guy carrying the mail. Brodeur. Luongo. Lundqvist. Miller. DiPietro.

The only reason really that you have a tandem goaltending situation is because, usually, one or more guy is struggling. The Pens can let Fleury play 65 games or so. He can handle it and they'd be better of for it.

Sabourin will be the #2, and Conklin will be the veteran in Wilkes-Barre. I know the Pens organ-eye-zation is very sweet on Sabourin, they like him and only lost him last year through waivers in a numbers/salary game.

The only way this will be an issue is if, God forbid, Fleury gets injured or struggles mightily.

• How does playing with Stanley Cup expectations change the dynamic in the Penguins' dressing room?

The most worthwhile question. At the beginning of last season, it was just a group of young guys with a lot of talent and no expectations. And they rocked it. The goal last year, all along, was to right the ship and make the playoffs. The Pens, of course, roared into the playoffs, then bowed to a more experienced foe.

At the beginning of this year there's more veteran names to provide quiet leadership, bring toughness and to carry out sturdy roles. This is where your Roberts and Sydor type players shine. The entire core of players--not just the stars but your guys like Armstrong, Talbot, Malone, Whitney, Orpik, etc. got their first taste of the postseason. There's no new surprises now.

First you got to get there, but unlike last year (where I don't believe any preseason publications had the Pens in the playoffs), this year I've seen them as no worse than the 3rd best team in the East, along with Ottawa and NYR. There will be expectations and the weight of that. But Crosby has had that weight on his shoulders for many years, Staal has ice water in his veins and Malkin doesn't even understand half the damn questions, so big deal.

Let's drop the puck already.